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Temperature changes in Poland in 21st century - results of global simulation and regional downscaling

100%

Pilarski M.

Quaestiones Geographicae

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2015

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tom 34

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nr 3

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Statistical downscaling of probability density function of daily precipitation on the Polish coast

51%

Wojcik R., Pilarski M., Mietus M.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2014

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tom 02

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nr 1

The aim of this study was to recognize the possibility of downscaling probability density function (PDF) of daily precipitation by means of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Sea level pressure (SLP) over Europe and the North Atlantic was used as a predictor. A skilful statistical model could be used to generate projections of future changes of precipitation PDF driven by GCM (General Circulation Model) simulations. Daily precipitation totals from 8 stations located on the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea covering the period 1961-2010 were used to estimate the gamma distribution parameters, and only wet days (i.e. ≥0.1mm) were taken in the analysis. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparison of empirical and theoretical (gamma-distributed) quantiles proved that gamma distribution gives a reliable description of daily precipitation totals. The validation of CCA models applied to gamma parameters revealed that the reliable reconstruction of precipitation PDF is possible only for average long-term conditions. In the case of individual months/seasons the agreement between empirical and reconstructed quantiles is poor. This study shows the potential of modelling of precipitation PDF, however efforts should be made to improve model performance by establishing more reliable links between regional forcing and the variability of the gamma parameters.

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Zmienność klimatu Polski od połowy XX wieku. Rezultaty projektu Klimat

39%

Marosz M., Wojcik R., Biernacik D., Jakusik E., Pilarski M., Owczarek M., Mietus M.

Prace i Studia Geograficzne

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2011

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tom 47

Ograniczanie wyników

1 Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

1 Prace i Studia Geograficzne

1 Quaestiones Geographicae

3 Pilarski M.

2 Mietus M.

2 Wojcik R.

1 Biernacik D.

1 Jakusik E.

1 Marosz M.

1 Owczarek M.

1 2015

1 2014

1 2011

Temperature changes in Poland in 21st century - results of global simulation and regional downscaling

Statistical downscaling of probability density function of daily precipitation on the Polish coast

Zmienność klimatu Polski od połowy XX wieku. Rezultaty projektu Klimat