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Coastal upwelling often reveals itself during the thermal stratification season as an abrupt sea surface temperature (SST) drop. Its intensity depends not only on the magnitude of an upwelling-favourable wind impulse but also on the temperature stratification of the water column during the initial stage of the event. When a ‘chain’ of upwelling events is taking place, one event may play a part in forming the initial stratification for the next one; consequently, SST may drop significantly even with a reduced wind impulse. Two upwelling events were simulated on the Polish coast in August 1996 using a three-dimensional, baroclinic prognostic model. The model results proved to be in good agreement with in situ observations and satellite data. Comparison of the simulated upwelling events show that the first one required a wind impulse of 28 000 kg m−1 s−1 to reach its mature, full form, whereas an impulse of only 7500 kg m−1 s−1 was sufficient to bring about a significant drop in SST at the end of the second event. In practical applications like operational modelling, the initial stratification conditions prior to an upwelling event should be described with care in order to be able to simulate the coming event with very good accuracy.
The thermal stratification of the upper water layers in the Baltic Sea varies seasonally in response to the annual cycle of solar heating and wind-induced mixing. In winter,the stratification down to the halocline is almost completely eroded by convection and strong wind mixing. Monthly averaged temperature profiles obtained from the ICES hydrographic database were used to study the long-term variability (1950 to 2005) of winter water mass formation in different deep basins of the Baltic Sea east of the island of Bornholm. Besides strong interannual variability of deep winter water temperatures,the last two decades show a positive trend (increase of 1–1.5◦C). Correlations of winter surface temperatures to temperatures of the winter water body located directly above or within the top of the halocline were strongly positive until the autumn months. Such a close coupling allows sea surface temperatures in winter to be used to forecast the seasonal development of the thermal signature in deeper layers with a high degree of confidence. The most significant impact of winter sea surface temperatures on the thermal signature in this depth range can be assigned to February/March. Stronger solar heating during spring and summer results in thermal stratification of the water column leading to a complete decoupling of surface and deep winter water temperatures. Based on laboratory experiments,temp erature-dependent relationships were utilised to analyse interannual variations of biological processes with special emphasis on the upper trophic levels (e.g.,stage-sp ecific developmental rates of zooplankton and survival rates of fish eggs).
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