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We studied circulation patterns in the Gulf of Finland, an estuary-like sub-basin of the Baltic Sea. According to previous observations and model results, the long-term mean circulation in the gulf is cyclonic and mainly density driven, whereas short-term circulation patterns are wind driven. We used the high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model NEMO to simulate the years 2012–2014. Our aim was to investigate the role of some key features, like river runoff and occasional events, in the formation of the circulation patterns. Our results show that many of the differences visible in the annual mean circulation patterns from one year to another are caused by a relatively small number of high current speed events. These events seem to be upwelling-related coastal jets. Although the Gulf of Finland receives large amounts of fresh water in river runoffs, the inter-annual variations in runoff did not explain the variations in the mean circulation patterns.
The response of semi-realistic wind speed increase scenarios to the mean sea level and current regime of semi-enclosed sub-basins in the Baltic Sea is studied with a 2D hydrodynamic model. According to the model output of spatial mean sea levels, an increase in the westerly wind component by 2 m s−1 leads, for example, to a mean sea level rise of up to 3 cm in windward locations in the study area. The sea level change patterns depend on the wind scenario and coastline configuration. The increases in wind speed considered here also lead to enhanced water exchange through the straits, strengthening of the basin-scale circulation, enhancement of up- and downwelling, and increased bottom stresses near coasts.
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Modelling of the Svalbard fjord Hornsund

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The Arctic Ocean is currently in transition towards a new, warmer state. Understanding the regional variability of oceanographic conditions is important, since they have a direct impact on local ecosystems. This work discusses the implementation of a hydrodynamic model for Hornsund, the southernmost fjord of western Svalbard. Despite its location, Hornsund has a stronger Arctic signature than other Svalbard fjords. The model was validated against available data, and the seasonal mean circulation was obtained from numerical simulations. Two main general circulation regimes have been detected in the fjord. The winter circulation represents a typical closed fjord system, while in summer the fresh water discharge from the catchment area generates a surface layer with a net flow out of Hornsund. Also described are the local hydrographic front and its seasonal variability, as well as the heat and salt content in Hornsund. The integration of salt and heat anomalies provides additional information about the salt flux into the innermost basin of the fjord - Brepollen during the summer. Extensive in situ observations have been collected in Hornsund for the last two decades but our hydrodynamic model is the first ever implemented for this area. While at the moment in situ observations better represent the state of this fjord's environment and the location of measurements, a numerical model, despite its flaws, can provide a more comprehensive image of the entire fjord's physical state. In situ observations and numerical simulations should therefore be regarded as complementary tools, with models enabling a better interpretation and understanding of experimental data.
The main 137Cs accumulation zone in the study area was found to be located at depths below the 50-metre isobath, i.e. below the layer of hydrodynamic activity. In coastal waters not influenced by the fresh water discharge from the Curonian Lagoon, 137Cs occurs mostly in soluble form. The particulate 137Cs activity concentration in the marine area affected by Curonian Lagoon water can make up 10% of the total 137Cs activity concentration. The circulation model was developed to assess the distribution of artificial radionuclides in Lithuanian territorial waters. The model was validated on the basis of data acquired during the measurement campaign in the Lithuanian part of the Baltic Sea and the Curonian Lagoon in the years 1999–2001. The model enables the 137Cs activity concentration to be simulated as a passive admixture (error within c. 15%).
The first part of the Baltic Sea ecohydrodynamic model, based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), was validated by long-term observations of sea level, salinity and water temperature fluctuations. The modelled sea surface temperature (SST) fields were also compared to satellite images – satisfactory correlation coefficients were obtained. The model bias and efficiency coefficients of the modelled variables in relation to the observed values were determined. The quality of model simulations in relation to measured values was estimated with respect to spatial and seasonal variability in shallow and deep coastal waters as well as in the open sea. The results indicated the high quality of simulations by the hydrodynamic model.
The paper addresses the sensitivity of a novel method for quantifying the environmental risks associated with the current-driven transport of adverse impacts released from offshore sources (e.g. ship traffic) with respect to the spatial resolution of the underlying hydrodynamic model. The risk is evaluated as the probability of particles released in different sea areas hitting the coast and in terms of the time after which the hit occurs (particle age) on the basis of a statistical analysis of large sets of 10-day long Lagrangian trajectories calculated for 1987–1991 for the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The relevant 2D maps are calculated using the OAAS model with spatial resolutions of 2, 1 and 0.5 nautical miles (nm) and with identical initial, boundary and forcing conditions from the Rossby Centre 3D hydrodynamic model (RCO, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). The spatially averaged values of the probability and particle age display hardly any dependence on the resolution. They both reach almost identical stationary levels (0.67–0.69 and ca 5.3 days respectively) after a few years of simulations. Also, the spatial distributions of the relevant fields are qualitatively similar for all resolutions. In contrast, the optimum locations for fairways depend substantially on the resolution, whereas the results for the 2 nm model differ considerably from those obtained using finer-resolutionmodels. It is concluded that eddy-permitting models with a grid step exceeding half the local baroclinic Rossby radius are suitable for a quick check of whether or not any potential gain from this method is feasible, whereas higher-resolution simulations with eddy-resolving models are necessary for detailed planning. The asymptotic values of the average probability and particle age are suggested as an indicator of the potential gain from the method in question and also as a new measure of the vulnerability of the nearshore of water bodies to offshore traffic accidents.
Stan ekosystemów fluwiogenivcznych uzależniony jest głównie od warunków zasilania ich wodami wezbraniowymi. W artykule wyznaczono dla obszaru Basenu Dolnego Biebrzy podstawowe hydroekologiczne charakterystyki zalewów. W tym celu zastosowano jednowymiarowy model hydrodynamiczny przepływu wód rzecznych. Model został zidentyfikowany dla danych pomiarowych z wezbrania w roku 1999, a następnie zweryfikowany za pomocą zasięgu zalewów otrzymanych z analizy zdjęć satelitarnych z lat 2000 i 2002. Opracowany model wykorzystano do obliczeń symulacyjnych dla okresu wegetacyjnego (luty-wrzesień) dla ciągu danych historycznych, obejmującego okres 35 lat (1961-1996). Obliczone rzędne zwierciadła wody wykorzystano za pomocą technik GIS i Numerycznego Modelu Terenu do określenia zasięgu zalewów, częstotliwości ich występowania oraz średniej głębokości. Uzyskane rezultaty mogą być wykorzystane jako dane wejściowe do modeli ekologicznych prognozujących stan ekosystemów fluwiogenicznych w tym rejonie.
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