Wyniki wyszukiwania - AGRO

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The forecasting of tornado events: the synoptic background of two different tornado case studies

100%

Wrona B., Avotniece Z.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2015

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tom 03

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nr 1

The synoptic analyses of two different tornado cases, observed in Latvia and Poland in the summer of 2012, are examined in this paper. The first of them, the tornado in Latvia seemed to be a “textbook example” of tornado occurrence. Its development took place in the contact zone of the warm, tropical air, characterized by a very high CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), with cold and moist polar marine air mass behind the convergence line that determined very good conditions for convective updraft. Additionally, the moderate environmental wind shear favoured the sufficient condition for concentrating the atmosphere’s vorticity into well-organized strong rotating upward motions that produced the supercell structures and tornado. Thus, from the forecaster’s point of view, the occurrence of this severe convective event was not a surprise. This phenomenon was predicted correctly more than a dozen hours before the tornado occurred. The second event occurred in the north of Poland and was associated with a thunderstorm where a supercell was formed in conditions of low CAPE but favourable wind profile, both vertical and horizontal. Helical environments (characterized by large shear vectors that veered with height in the lowest three kilometres, especially the nearest one kilometre) were arguably the most important factor that determined the Polish tornado’s occurrence. In this case the analysis of the synoptic situation was not so clear and the superficial analysis, even post factum, regarding radar, satellite or detection maps might have suggested “quite a normal” summer thunderstorm. However, the detailed examination showed the reasons why tornado genesis took place. The potential conditions for the occurrence of this severe phenomenon were indicated by forecasters, although the forecasts were less exact with regard to the place of occurrence and the heaviness of the strike.

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Forecasting of railway track tamping based on settlement of sleepers using fuzzy logic

88%

Mieloszyk E., Milewska A., Grulkowski S.

Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Architectura

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2018

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tom 17

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nr 2

The sleepers in a railway track transfer vertical, transverse and longitudinal loads to the track ballast and subgrade. The sleepers allow for keeping the distance between the rails constant. The thickness of ballast should be between 16 and 35 cm depending on the design standard of the track, and it should be densified where the ballast supports the sleeper. The exploitation causes contamination of the ballast, crushing the material under cyclic dynamic loads, which results in the settlement of sleepers. Consequently, the thickness of ballast is not sufficient and the effects such as longitudinal unevenness of rails and track twist appear. Those effects have negative impact on the comfort and travel safety, in the extreme cases leading to the derailment. The parameters like ballast thickness, degree of its contamination, its density and sleepers’ settlement are difficult to measure so that they can be considered as ‘fuzzy’. Therefore, the fuzzy sets and transfer functions are used to determine those parameters. The cause and effect relationships and their impact on the reliability of the system will be analyzed in the fuzzy sets’ domain. Special attention will be paid to use this concept in forecasting the track tamping to enhance the interaction of the track surface with the soil ground and to increase safety.

3

Ex-ante analysis of macro-regional development in the Visegrad Countries, with special emphasis on some turbulent periods

88%

Kocziszky G., Szendi D.

Economic and Regional Studies

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2023

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tom 16

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nr 2

4

Weekly urban water demand forecasting using a hybrid waveletbootstrap-artificial neural network approach

88%

Adamowski K., Adamowski J. F., Seidou O., Ozga-Zielinski B.

Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation

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2014

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tom 46

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nr 3

This study developed a hybrid wavelet–bootstrapartifi cial neural network (WBANN) model for weekly (one week) urban water demand forecasting in situations with limited data availability. The proposed WBANN method is aimed at improving the accuracy and reliability of water demand forecasting. Daily maximum temperature, total precipitation and water demand data for almost three years were used in this study. It was concluded that the hybrid WBANN model was more accurate compared to the ANN, BANN and WANN methods, and can be applied successfully for operational water demand forecasting. The WBANN model simulated peak water demand very effectively. The better performance of the WBANN model indicated that wavelet analysis signifi cantly improved the model’s performance, whereas the bootstrap technique improved the reliability of forecasts by producing ensemble forecasts. The WBANN model was also found to be effective in assessing the uncertainty associated with water demand forecasts in terms of confi dence bands; this can be helpful in operational water demand forecasting.

5

Aplication of time series models in forecasting agricultural production

88%

Kaba B.

Folia Universitatis Agriculturae Stetinensis. Oeconomica

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2003

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tom 42

6

Nowcasting of rainfall based on extrapolation and evolution algorithms. Preliminary results

75%

Giszterowicz M., Osrodka K., Szturc J.

Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus

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2018

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tom 17

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nr 4

7

Sovershenstvovanie modeli prognozirovanija programm remonta mashin, ikh uzlov i agregatov s ispol'zovaniem nesimmetricheskikh raspredelenijj

75%

Kuz'minskij R.

Motrol. Motoryzacja i Energetyka Rolnictwa

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2013

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tom 15

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nr 4

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Forecasting techniques in construction industry: earned value indicators and performance models

75%

Jaber F. K., Jasim N. A., Al-Zwainy F. M. S.

Przegląd Naukowy. Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska

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2020

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tom 29

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nr 2[88]

9

Criteria for selecting attributes for the prognostic neural model based on limited data set

75%

Janaszak M., Majorczyk M., Mankowski D. R., Trajer J.

Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Agriculture

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2007

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nr 51 Agric.Forest Eng.

99-104

10

Cycles in the global milk market

75%

Olipra J.

Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development

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2019

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nr 2[52]

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Feedforward neural networks and the forecasting of multi-sectional demand for telecom services: a comparative study of effectiveness for hourly data

75%

Kaczmarczyk P.

Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia

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2020

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tom 19

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nr 3

12

The forecasting of useful water reserves in the soil under rye on the basis of meteorological data

75%

Kozminski C., Michalska B., Nidzgorska-Lencewicz J.

Folia Universitatis Agriculturae Stetinensis. Agricultura, Alimentaria, Piscaria et Zootechnica

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2007

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tom 02

13

Development of mathematical models for forecasting a quality of fabrics

75%

Pugachevskiy G., Osipenko N.

Towaroznawcze Problemy Jakości. Polskie Towarzystwo Towaroznawcze

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2005

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nr 4

14

Application of ARIMA model to daily temperature prognosis

63%

Chmiel M., Zielinski W.

Colloquium Biometryczne

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2000

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tom 30

15

Dlaczego prognoza i sygnalizacja sa niezbedne w ochronie roslin

63%

Midura M.

Biuletyn Informacyjno-Handlowy. Ośrodek Doradztwa Rolniczego Boguchwała

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2000

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nr 06

14

16

Orientirovochnye prognozy kharakteristic skorosti vetra v Evrope s uchetom izmenchivosti raspredelenija poverkhnostnykh temperatur Severnojj Atlantiki na primere Severnogo Prichernomor'ja

63%

Kholopcev A., Akcenova A.

Motrol. Motoryzacja i Energetyka Rolnictwa

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2013

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tom 15

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nr 5

17

Selected methods of corporate bankruptcy risk assessment - the cases of the Polish chosen meat sector companies

63%

Boratynska K., Wloczewska E.

Roczniki Naukowe Stowarzyszenia Ekonomistów Rolnictwa i Agrobiznesu

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2013

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tom 15

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nr 6

Thanks to the tools and methods used nowadays in the financial sector, management of an enterprise in not only aware of the financial performance but is also able to assess the risks by which the company is threatened and thus prepare for necessary changes. The paper main purpose was to describe and apply the commonly used tools of the bankruptcy risk assessing. The methods were applied on four companies of the polish meat sector. Two of them went bankrupt in 2012 and other two are still operating. The paper indicates both advantages and limitations of the methods used.

18

To the problem of dynamic forecasting of catastrophes in "time-place" coordinates

63%

Veligura A., Guts L., Lyashenko T.

Teka Komisji Motoryzacji i Energetyki Rolnictwa

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2010

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tom 10D

19

Sea level and storm surge forecasting in the Southern Baltic

63%

Wroblewski A.

Oceanologia

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1991

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tom 31

20

Modeling and forecasting rye price using arima model

63%

Szczepanik M., Domagala D.

Electronic Journal of Polish Agricultural Universities. Series Economics

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2014

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tom 17

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nr 4

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