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The effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy models

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Subject and purpose of work: Research targeted at verification of effectiveness of the selected Polish models of forecasting bankruptcy of an enterprise has been presented within the article. Materials and methods: Within the research financial data from the years 2009-2012 have been used, obtained from 110 companies out of which 55 are companies which underwent bankruptcy and 55 which did not. Discriminant analysis as well as logit models and method of aggregated assessment have been applied. Results: Due to the frequent low quality of classification obtained via single models a method which may be called as aggregated method was suggested, which is based on the assessment of situation of a single unit on indications of the majority of models. This method allowed to increase the correctness of identification up to 87,3%. The share of incorrect identifications is rather high and amounts to 12,7%. Conclusions: The author is of the opinion that the assessment of situation of an entity may not be based solely on the indications of models of bankruptcy prognosis. This assessment may be treated solely indicatively, especially when consequences of a decision made on this basis (i.e. decision on granting a loan) may significantly impact further position of such entity and its surroundings.
Thanks to the tools and methods used nowadays in the financial sector, management of an enterprise in not only aware of the financial performance but is also able to assess the risks by which the company is threatened and thus prepare for necessary changes. The paper main purpose was to describe and apply the commonly used tools of the bankruptcy risk assessing. The methods were applied on four companies of the polish meat sector. Two of them went bankrupt in 2012 and other two are still operating. The paper indicates both advantages and limitations of the methods used.
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