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The paper examined how the farm management support provided by public extension to mitigate the effects of climate variability influences farmers’ production, and whether this support considers farmers’ capital assets. Both probability and non-probability sampling procedures were used to select districts, municipalities and farmers from 20 villages of Limpopo province, South Africa in January, 2014. Semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect data from field-level extension agents and smallholder grain farmers. The most common climate variability coping strategy promoted by many agents was climate-smart agriculture practices. This strategy was applied by most users and non-users of extension support. The most popular channel used by agents to communicate information to farmers was farm visits. There were indications that agents did not consider producers’ capital assets in their choice of channels to communicate information to producers. Results further indicate that extension support, including climate variability information, contributed to increased crop yields, albeit small. It is recommended that field trials be done to ensure proper application of climate variability coping measures. More use of mass media and group methods to supplement farm visits is recommended.
Using the results of the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO) the Baltic inflows in summer/autumn 2002 and January 2003 have been studied. The model results were extracted from a long simulation with observed atmospheric forcing starting in May 1980. In RCO a bottom boundary layer model was embedded. Both the smaller inflows and the major inflow in January 2003 are simulated in good agreement with observations. We found that a total of 222 km3 water entered the Baltic in January; the salinity of 94 km3 was greater than 17 PSU. In August/September 2002 the outflow through the Sound and inflow across the Darss Sill were simulated. The net inflow volume amounted to about 50 km3.
Potato is an important crop globally and late blight (Phytophthora infestans) often results in severe crop loss. The cost for late blight control can be in excess of $210 million in the United States. We utilised a non-parametric density distribution analysis of local temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH), from 2005 to 2009, to assess and validate sporangia survival potential using survival model and late blight risks during the potato cropping season at Presque Isle, in the northern part of the state of Maine, USA. Modelbased analyses showed that ambient temperatures of 3−30°C and RH values of 45−100% were conducive for sporangia survival. Disease outbreaks and risk periods coincided with a high sporangia survival probability (15−35%). Due to the omission of solar radiation (SR) in the computation of survival potential in previous research, we applied a Cox proportional model to estimate the probability of sporangia survival [i.e. hazard at a specific time H(t)] as a function of baseline hazard (H0) and the influencing parameters. The model is: H(t) = H0(t) × exp(0.067ET + 0.138T + 0.083RH + 0.001SR) where ET is exposure time. The survival model indicated that RH (β = 0.083) and T (β = 0.138) were significant (p < 0.05) factors in sporangia survival in comparison to SR (β = 0.001). The hazard ratio, indicative of sporangia survival risk, varied with the predictors. For the unit increase of T, sporangia survival hazard increased by 1.148 times. The Cox model and sporangia hazard probabilities can be used for short-term disease forecasts based on the risk period most conducive for pathogen survival and targeted fungicide applications for optimum late blight management.
Climate variability greatly affects animals through direct and indirect effects. Animals with slow reproductive adaptation to ecological changes such as large mammals are likely to have evolved mechanisms to anticipate early such impacts of climate variability on the environment. One of the adaptive mechanisms between reproductive costs and benefits in mammals affects parental investment through biases in sex ratio. Deer might be likely to show an early detection of climate variability because conception takes place in early autumn, but the main raising cost in deer concerns lactation, which takes place at the end of the following spring. The aim of this paper is to assess whether there is a relationship between global indices of climate variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sex ratio of a captive population of deer. Results showed that there was a negative correlation (r=−0.65) between sex ratio and ENSO indices between 1996 and 2008. El Niño enhances drier conditions during the summer in the Iberia Peninsula, which in turn favours a female bias. Results also suggest that the mechanism of early detection of climate variability exerts a strong effect on female reproductive physiology because the long-term stability of food resources in our setting has not markedly reduced it.
This study investigates the effect of climate variability on the phenotype, leaf litter decomposition intensity and seedling spread of alien red oak (Quercus rubra L.). Twenty-eight red oak forest stands located in Lithuania were evaluated. Indirect climate change indicators such as continentality were used in the analysis. Simulation of climate warming was achieved using an agro sheet cover. According to the results, the morphological traits of red oak stems in the maritime regions (warmer winters) do not differ significantly from those of red oaks stems in the continental areas of Lithuania (colder winters, more frequent spring frosts). Red oak leaf litter under an agro sheet cover (warmer conditions) decomposes at almost the same intensity as without the cover (natural conditions). The red oak seedlings spread 100 m or more irrespective of continentality. These results showed indirectly that climate change will not affect red oak stem quality or microorganism activity in the process of leaf litter decomposition. Red oak will thus remain as an invasive species, threatening composition change in native forests.
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