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Since China claimed to achieve carbon emission peak around 2030 in the “China-U.S. Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change,” whether or not the target can be accomplished has become the focus of discussion. Thus, the aim of this study is to forecast the carbon emissions peak of Hebei Province in China (as a case study) for the period of 2016-2030 through the historical data of 1990-2015 using the STIRPAT model and GA-BP (BP neural network based on genetic algorithm) model. We choose the proportion of coal consumption, population, urbanization rate, energy intensity, per capita GDP (replaced by GDP in the GA-BP model) and the proportion of services as the independent variables, and set 9 scenarios in the light of different increment speeds of these variables during 2016-2030. Results show that the ranges of estimated carbon emission peaks are 784.1635-1,007.2901 million tons in the STIRPAT model and 702.7465- 702.8144 million tons in the GA-BP model, with corresponding peak years all in or before 2030. Moreover, a comparative study of the STIRPAT and GA-BP models reveals that the GA-BP model estimates carbon emissions more accurately than STIRPAT; however, the STIRPAT model is more precise on the prediction of carbon emission peak years.
A method has been developed for embryogenic cell suspension cultures, plant regeneration and transformation of the important ornamental lily genotype (Lilium tenuifolium oriental × trumpet ‘Robina’). Bulb scales, filaments, ovaries and stem axis tissues were used as explants for callus induction in Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium with additions of growth regulators: picloram on its own, or in combination with 1-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA), and thidiazuron (TDZ). The results show that the optimum medium for callus induction in bulb scale and filament tissue is MS + picloram 1.0 mg L⁻¹, and for the ovary, it is MS + picloram 1.5 mg L⁻¹. The stem axis had the highest rate (89.2 %) of callus induction with MS + NAA 2.2 mg L⁻¹ + TDZ 0.1 mg L⁻¹. The suspension cultures were established with the combination of NAA and TDZ with 2–5 mm cell clusters. These took a long time compared with suspension cultures established by picloram with 1–3 mm cell clusters. In three suspension cultures induced by picloram, the best callus from the point of view of proliferation and regeneration was derived from filaments. For plant regeneration, the growth rate of suspension cultures from the stem axis was higher than from the other three suspension culture induced by picloram. Vector pCAMBIA1301 with the β-glucuronidase (GUS) gene as reporter was transformed by Agrobacterium mediation into suspension cultures initiated from filament and stem axis material. After co-cultivation, the numbers of blue spots in material from the two sources were 26.8 ± 4.3 and 24.0 ± 4.7, respectively (difference not significant). Hygromycin-resistant callus was successfully regenerated into plantlets on plant growth regulator-free MS medium. Transgenic plants were also confirmed by the GUS histochemical assay, polymerase chain reaction.
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