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For the purposes of planning and operation of maritime activities, information about wave height dynamics is of great importance. In the paper, real-time prediction of significant wave heights for the following 0.5–5.5 h is provided, using information from 3 or more time points. In the first stage, predictions are made by varying the quantity of significant wave heights from previous time points and various ways of using data are discussed. Afterwards, in the best model, according to the criteria of practicality and accuracy, the influence of wind is taken into account. Predictions are made using two machine learning methods – artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). The models were built using the built-in functions of software Weka, developed by Waikato University, New Zealand.
Based on wind data from the Vilsandi meteorological station and a 5-month calibration measurement with a bottom-mounted Recording Doppler Current Profiler (RDCP), a semi-empirical hindcast of wave parameters near the quickly developing accumulative Kelba Spit is presented for the period 1966–2006. The significant wave heights with a gross mean value of 0.56 m exhibited some quasiperiodic cycles, with the last high stage in 1980–95 and a decreasing overall trend of −0.001 m per year. At the same time, both the frequency and intensity of high wave events showed rising trends, and the mean wave heights during winter (December to February) increased as well. As the study area has the longest fetches in westerly directions, the discussed tendencies in wave conditions are sensitive to regional changes in the wind climate and can be related to a decrease in the local average wind speed on the one hand, but an intensification of westerly winds, storm events and the wintertime NAO index on the other. The roughest wave storms on record were associated with prominent W-storms on 2 November 1969 and 9 January 2005; a few other extreme wind events (e.g. in 1967, 1999, 2001), however, did not yield equally prominent waves.
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