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The debate on the climatic impact of Arctic change is currently focused on the fate of the perennial sea-ice and the climatic and social effects of its disappearance. Developments in our observing techniques mean that we are in prospect of being technically able to describe the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system of high northern latitudes operating as a complete system for the first time. Understanding this system and improving its predictability in models seems to be our most direct way of extending the ability of society to mitigate for or adapt to its changes, including global change. The integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System (iAOOS), described here, is a means of piecing together the available PIs, gear, ships and funding on the pan-Arctic scale that seems necessary to making the attempt, and the International Polar Year (2007–2009) provides the necessary stimulus for doing so.
The main findings of studies of the physical oceanography of the Gulf of Finland (GoF) during 1997–2007 are reviewed. The aim is to discuss relevant updates published in international peer-reviewed research papers and monographs, bearing in mind that a comprehensive overview of the studies up to the mid-1990s is available (Alenius et al. 1998). We start the discussion with updates on the basic hydrographical and stratification conditions, and progress in the understanding of atmospheric forcing and air-sea interaction. Advances in the knowledge of basinscale and mesoscale dynamics are summarised next. Progress in circulation and water exchange dynamics has been achieved mostly by means of numerical studies. While the basic properties of circulation patterns in the gulf have been known for a century, new characteristics and tools such as water age, renewal index, and high-resolution simulations have substantially enriched our knowledge of processes in the Gulf of Finland during the last decade. We present the first overview of both status and advances in optical studies in this area. Awareness in this discipline has been significantly improved as a result of in situ measurements. Our understanding of the short- and long-term behaviour of the sea level as well as knowledge of the properties of both naturally and anthropogenically induced surface waves have expanded considerably during these ten years. Developments in understanding the ice conditions of the Gulf of Finland complete the overview, together with a short discussion of the gulf’s future, including the response to climate change. Suggestions for future work are outlined.
According to the results of recent research, besides the atmospheric circulation, it is heat transport to the Arctic Ocean (AO) by ocean currents, the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) in particular, that is playing a significant role in the process of Arctic warming. Data collected by the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (IO PAS), in the Norwegian and Greenland Seas, and Fram Strait during the last 20 years reveal considerable changes in the amount of heat transported by the WSC into the Arctic Ocean. An increase in Atlantic Water (AW) temperature and the intensification of heat transport were observed in 2004–06; after this period, both parameters decreased. The aim of this study was to find out whether the fluctuations in heat input by the WSC have influenced the sea-ice distribution around Svalbard. In fact they do, but oceanic heat transport should nonetheless be regarded as just one of many processes influencing sea-ice behaviour.
Svalbard archipelago, a high latitude area in a region undergoing rapid climate change, is relatively easily accessible for field research. This makes the fjords of Spitsbergen, its largest island, some of the best studied Arctic coastal areas. This paper aims at answering the question of how climatically diverse the fjords are, and how representative they are for the expected future Arctic diminishing range of seasonal sea-ice. This study uses a meteorological reanalysis, sea surface temperature climatology, and the results of a recent one-year meteorological campaign in Spitsbergen to determine the seasonal differences between different Spitsbergen fjords, as well as the sea water temperature and ice ranges around Svalbard in recent years. The results show that Spitsbergen fjords have diverse seasonal patterns of air temperature due to differences in the SST of the adjacent ocean, and different cloudiness. The sea water temperatures and ice concentrations around Svalbard in recent years are similar to what is expected most of the Arctic coastal areas in the second half of this century. This makes Spitsbergen a unique field study model of the conditions expected in future warmer High Arctic.
Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3) driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs) are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980 –2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model’s response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980–2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961 –2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.
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