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The earth is now facing the land degradation due to human disturbance, natural habitats were converted to rural and agricultural areas in order to fulfill the increasing demand of human population. The deforestation of Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce) forest at Qilian Mts is an example of such disturbance. P. crassifolia is an ecologically and hydrologically important plant species in the northwestern arid area of China. However, the forests have been intensively and extensively deforested. In order to restore the human-disturbed ecosystems, the spatial distribution of P. crassifolia needs to be delineated. This study employed Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction model (GARP) and Maximum entropy model (Maxent) and four environmental variables (mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual solar radiation, topographic wetness index) to predict the potential distribution of P. crassifolia in Qilian Mts. Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction model (GARP) produces a model of species niches in geographic space based on heterogeneous rule-sets. Maximum entropy model (Maxent) focuses on fitting a probability distribution for occurrence based on the idea that the best explanation to unknown phenomena will maximize the entropy of the probability distribution, subject to the appropriate constraints. The environmental variables were spatially interpolated throughout the entire study area. We used sensitivity-specificity sum maximum approach to select the threshold value. The projected niche space for the mean temperature of the warmest quarter is between 8.5 and 18.1°C; the space for the precipitation of the wettest quarter is between 149 and 245 mm; the space for annual solar radiation is 118–1100×103 wh m–2 and the space for topographic wetness index is between –0.4 and 5.1. The results show that both GARP and Maxent’s models produce acceptable predictions, but the overall comparison shows that GARP prediction is better than Maxent’s; the comparison between the observed distribution and the predicted distribution suggests that 61% (2869 km2) of P. crassifolia forests have been deforested.
Quantifying the pattern of habitat distribution for range plant species can assist sustainable planning of rangeland use and management. However, data of plant species distribution are often scarce and modeling of habitat distribution using commonly used models is difficult. In this study, the Maximum Entropy Method (MaxEnt) was used to model the distribution of plant habitat to find the effective variables in plant species occurrence in the Poshtkouh rangelands on Yazd province, central Iran. Maps of the environmental variables were generated using GIS and Geostatistics facilities. Accuracy of model output was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and keeping 30 percent of the data. Evaluation of model accuracy by AUC indicated good and acceptable predictive accuracy for all plant species habitats, except Artemisia sieberi which had high frequency. The predictive maps of Artemisia aucheri, Scariola orientalis — Astragalus albispinus, A. sieberi₂ and A. sieberi — Zygophyllum eurypterum had fair agreement with their corresponding observed maps. In addition, the accuracy of S. orientalis — A. sieberi and Tamarix ramosissima predictive maps was low and the estimated conformity rate of prediction and observed maps was poor. In fact, due to differences in the optimal ecological range, level of agreement of predictive and observed maps at each site was different. MaxEnt was substantially excellent to predict distributions of plant species habitat with narrow ecological niches e.g. Rheum ribes — A. sieberi, Seidlitzia rosmarinus and Cornulaca monacantha. It can also perform well with fairly few samples due to employing regularization.
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