Recent climate change has a major impact on the sizes and distribution of bird populations, the phenology of their breeding/migration and migratory behaviour (migration distance, migration strategy). We documented changes in the numbers of juvenile Blackcaps migrating in autumn through the S Baltic that were paralleled by changes in wing length of captured individuals during a 43-year study period (1967-2009). We suggest that the observed trends may indicate changing population composition of migrating birds. In the Blackcap, wing length distinguishes among different populations and increases with increasing migration distance of a given population. Available published data show that long-distance and short-distance Blackcaps pass the study region. Hence, we assumed that shorter-winged birds are short-distance migrants wintering in the southern Europe, and that longer-winged individuals are long-distance migrants wintering in the sub-Saharan region. It seems that in 1967-1980 most Blackcap populations declined, but, as wing length slightly increased, the rate of this decline has been higher in the shorter-winged/short-distance Blackcaps. Over the subsequent 24 years alongside with rapidly growing numbers of birds, we noted a remarkable decrease in wing length. This indicates a pronounced increase in the number of short-distance individuals compared to long-dis- tance migrants. Both groups may benefit from improved conditions at their breeding grounds, but the shorter migration route and favourable conditions at wintering sites north of Sahara could favour short-distance migrants over the longer distance and longer-winged Blackcaps.
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