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Results from a series of five surveys among five groups of international climate scientists about their evaluation of elements of climate models and of climate change are presented. The first survey was done in 1996, the latest in 2015/16. Thus, our snapshots of the opinions of climate scientists cover 20 years. The results describe a strong increase in agreement concerning issues of manifestation of climate change, i.e., that the warming is real and not influenced by changing measuring and reporting practices, and concerning attribution of this ongoing climate change to ongoing anthropogenic causes. On the other hand, the evaluation of the climate models has changed little in the past 20 years. There are still significant reservations with the models ability to incorporate clouds and to describe rainfall. Obviously the growing conviction of ongoing man-made climate change is based on a variety of explanations, with modelling not being the predominant line of evidence. We suggest that it may be the repeated assessments by the IPCC, based on paleoclimatic evidence and stringent statistical analysis of the instrumental record which have led to the growing consensus of the warming and its causation. We stress that the presented results concern the opinion of climate scientists with a rather broad background. Our results do not assess if the opinions of the surveyed scientists are “valid” or “right”, but they recognize the character of science being a social process.
Разработана стохастическая модель и проведён анализ системы «человек- машина» при накоплении отказов. Получена аналитическая зависимость для определения вероятности безотказной работы системы в период ухудшения технического состояния машины и снижения профессионального и психофизиологического уровня оператора.
When searching for nature rules we encounter a fundamental difficulty: for technical reasons we are not able to investigate the whole Nature - we have to explore its sections i.e. empirical systems (structures). However, even then it might happen that the system is too complex and its comprehensive, direct investigation is impossible. In this case we can study the system by means of its abstract model e.g. a mathematical model.Abstract models of empirical systems usually present simplified modelled systems, where simplification depends on different reasons, e.g. on the purpose of model construction or the state of our knowledge on a modelled system. As a rule we also exclude from the model those independent variables, whose influence on a dependent variable is insignificant. Simplification does not have to mean that the validity of the simplified heuristic model is lower than the validity of the same model before its simplification.Some remarks refer to certain methodological problems associated with models and modelling, as well as scientific research performed with those tools.
Entrepreneurship is a growing phenomenon in the world markets. The article presents: essence, dimensions, components and choice models of entrepreneurship and the concept of strategic entrepreneurship. Within the entrepreneurship and strategic management domains there has been a movement by researches to combine certain aspects of both areas to create a new concept of strategic entrepreneurship.
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The problem of the automobile course stability is considered. The change of the car steerability based on the analysis of non linear bicycl model is analyzed. Generalized dependence determining “the steerability curve” is obtained. Conditions which caused the loss of stability with increasing speed while moving within the constant radius circle regarding the bifurcation set are analyzed.
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