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Present climate change in Belarus

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Awareness of the potential threat of significant natural hazards necessitates the introduction of appropriate procedures allowing for effective and systematic actions aimed at eliminating, or at least partially limiting the effects of such events. Due to the nature of drought and the complex process of its development, the cause and effect approach is widely used in assessing droughts. Naturally, this leads to the treatment of drought in terms of risk, which is defined as a derivative of hazards and consequences. Thus formulated definition of drought leads, in a broader context, to endeavours at minimizing the effects and reducing the size of losses, taking into account the prioritization of activities. An active drought risk management policy is necessary to achieve the safety of water resources in the face of current climate threats and expected further changes. The aim of this work is to present the original concept of drought risk assessment for the needs of strategic risk management as an integrated approach to the implementation of the drought management plan. Risk management is crucial and necessary to effectively reducing the effects of drought in a sustainable manner, in the context of meeting the needs of the population, the environment, and the economy. Risk management is a continuous process, consisting of logically arranged, consecutive events, actions, decisions and approvals, repeated cyclically in the course of monitoring the achieved results and implementing optional adaptations to the observed and forecasted changes. The risk management system presented in the work creates an organizational, methodical and functional framework, the implementation of which in the form of structural and IT solutions may be a tool for effective operation of plans aimed at counteracting the effects of drought on the level of particular water regions and river catchments. The proposed approach, based on strategic management in pursuit of sustainable assurance of water safety for social and natural systems, ensures durability of services of freshwater ecosystems responsible for maintaining biodiversity, maintaining life processes and regeneration of the environment, as well as providing people with economic benefits. The integrated SPI-SRI index of coexistence of humidity conditions was used to assess the risk of drought. The aforementioned index made it possible to determine the likelihood of a drought in probabilistic terms, including the phase of atmospheric and hydrological drought in a given basin, which is a key element in drought risk assessment. The estimated period of repeatability of the threat of dry or very dry meteorological conditions leading to hydrological drought in the Nysa Kłodzka catchment was calculated as once every 7.2 years, and in the Prosna catchment, once every 8 years. This information can be used in planning actions aimed at minimizing the effects of drought, and in water management (for instance, on reservoirs) aimed at reducing these effects.
The article contains descriptive statistics on rainfall in an area of the southern part of the last ice age in Europe, and which now comprises the north-eastern part of the Poland. The study covers the period of 1981-2010. The sums of the annual and monthly precipitation were calculated, while years and months were evaluated in relation to the multi-annual and monthly averages. The frequency of daily precipitations was also determined. Values of SPI (Standarized Precipitation Index) were calculated together with the values of the Selianinov Index, which measures the environmental aspect of precipitation. The average annual rainfall showed a spatial heterogeneity in the region from 700.1 mm (Elblag in the north-west) to 555.3 mm (Mława) in the east and south-east. The greatest precipitation occurred in the last decade of the analysed period of thirty years. However, statistical analysis shows no significant trend change in precipitation during this period. The number of years with sums of precipitation below 75% of the normal turned out to be very small. In the annual cycle, summer precipitation prevailed. On a monthly basis, the averages sometimes exceeded the multiyear averages by as much as 200%, while extreme lows in monthly precipitation reached levels below 25% of the long-term averages. The calculated value of the SPI indicated that the most common drought conditions occurred in May and June; such droughts did not occur in April and July. The Selianinov Index indicates that the least favorable hydrothermal conditions occur in April and May, while the most favorable conditions occur in August and September.
The water content of the rivers is formed by atmospheric precipitation and underground waters. Influence of underground waters on water content of the rivers cannot be measured. It is shown that the volume of underground water exchange is underestimated and can be commensurable with a volume of atmospheric precipitation. Change of level of underground waters is defined by changes of volume of the geological environment during geodeformations. It is offered to consider geodeformations as one of the reasons of floods and droughts. Studied the changes the gravitational field and geodeformations during droughts and floods in the Amazon in 2005-2006. Studied the hydrological regime of the River Nile. Shows the influence of geodeformation on the level of Danube and Dniester. Proposed detailed study the causes of floods in Europe in 2002. Influence of the Earth’s surface deformation on floods and droughts is very important and requires special detailed study. Changes in volume of rocks during Earth’s surface deformation are accompanied by dilatancy which influence on the amount of drought and flooding has turned out to be significant. Study of the processes considered in the thesis gives grounds to expect that floods and droughts associated with deformations of the geological environment will be successfully predicted.
Braya humilis (Brassicaceae) is a widely distributed plant in arid and semi-arid regions of northern Asia. This plant is well adapted to extremely arid conditions and is a promising candidate species to discover novel drought tolerance strategies. However, not much information about the mechanism(s) mediating drought resistance in this species is currently available. Therefore, the present study aimed to characterize the physiological traits and expression patterns of a polyethylene glycol (PEG)-responsive gene in B. humilis responding to different levels of osmotic stress induced by PEG-6000. Several important physiological parameters were examined, including the levels of relative water content, soluble protein, malondialdehyde, and antioxidant enzyme activity. A tolerance threshold between 20 and 30% PEG-6000 was identified for B. humilis. The water status and oxidative damage below this threshold were maintained at a relatively constant level during the 12 h of treatment. However, once the threshold was exceeded, the water status and oxidative damage were obviously affected after treatment for 4 h. The soluble protein results suggest that B. humilis maintains a vigorous resistance to osmotic stress and that it may play a greater role in osmotic regulation at late stages of stress. Moreover, superoxide dismutase and catalase may be important at preventing oxidative damage in plants at early stages of stress, while peroxidase may be more involved in some biological processes that resist osmotic stress at the late stage, especially in severely damaged plants. Furthermore, a PEG-responsive gene, BhCIPK12, was identified by differential display reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (PCR), cloned, and characterized by quantitative real-time PCR. We hypothesized that this gene may play an important role in mediating osmotic stress or drought resistance in plants. Altogether, these results provide valuable insights into the mechanism(s) mediating drought tolerance in B. humilis.
Assessing drought severity is an element of the drought monitoring. The assessment of severity and frequency of dry periods in a given severity class depends on the assumed criteria of drought. Using the series of precipitation records in the growing periods of 1954-1998 from 6 meteorological stations located in Wielkopolska and Kujawy, the relative precipitation index RPI and the standardized precipitation index SPI have been calculated. In view of the lack of statistically significant differences in mean precipitation between selected stations, it has been assumed that the region is homogenous in that aspect. According to RPI and the Kaczorowska's criteria, dry months constituted 40 % of the growing periods. According to SPI, dry months amounted only 15 %. In the paper the values of both indices and their correlations are analysed. The reasons of significant differences in the frequency of occurrence of dry months are indicated. The indices are evaluated with regard to their applicability for drought monitoring.
Like many plants, Arabidopsis thaliana increases in freezing tolerance in response to low non-freezing temperatures, a phenomenon known as cold acclimation. Associated with cold acclimation are a number of biochemical changes including the expression of COR (cold-regulated) genes. Here we summarize recent progress we have made in understanding the function and regulation of these genes. One significant finding regarding COR gene function is that constitutive expression of COR15a in transgenic Arabidopsis plants enhances the freezing tolerance of both chloroplasts and protoplasts. These results provide the first direct evidence for a COR gene having a role in freezing tolerance. The precise mechanism of COR15a action is not yet know, but current results indicate the gene has a role in stabilizing membranes against freeze-induced damage. In regards to COR gene regulation, we have isolated a cDNA for CBF1, the first identified transcriptional activator that binds to the CRT (C-repeat)/DRE (drought responsive element), a cold- and drought-responsive DNA regulatory element present in the promoters of COR genes. Our working hypothesis is that CBF1 binds to the CRT/DRE sequence and participates in the regulation of COR genes in response to low temperature and drought.
The effect of water deficit on the ATP-dependent proteolysis and total protein degradation was estimated in the leaves of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) acclimated and non-acclimated to drought. The rate of ATP-dependent proteolysis, quantified as a difference between degradation of ¹²⁵I-lysozyme under ATP-regenerating and ATP-depleting systems, accounted for about 55 % of total ¹²⁵I-lysozyme degradation in fully turgid wheat leaves. In the non-acclimated leaves dehydration decreased sharply ATP-dependent proteolysis catalyzed by proteasome down to about 5% while in the leaves acclimated to drought water deficit raised ATP-dependent proteolysis to 87 % of total 125I-lysozyme hydrolysis.
The effects of drought stress on changes in the relative water content, in levels of photochemical efficiency and chlorophyll content and in activities of antioxidative enzymes of second leaves of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars Mironovská and Estica were compared. In one set, control plants were regularly watered, the other set of plant was subjected to water deficit period since 11th day to 18th day of plants life-span. The activity of all antioxidative enzymes and content of β-carotene increased, relative water content, total chlorophyll content and photochemical efficiency decreased after treatment in both cultivars. In the case of Estica the values of antioxidative enzymes activity was higher than in the case of Mironovská. It is therefore possible to assume that Estika is capable of dealing with higher levels of active oxygen species created during drought stress.This might enabled it compensate the effects of drought stres more effectively.
In this study, an Estonian tree-ring network of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H.Karst.), originating from both living trees and dead wood of construction wood, was used for determining the growth variations over the past 350 years (AD 1657–2009). Regional curve standardization was used to remove the non-climatic growth variations from the individual tree-ring series prior to dendroclimatic analyses to focus on the low-frequency (long-term and -period) growth variations. Previously, the chronology has been shown to correlate markedly well with Estonian precipitation history. Here we further detail this dendroclimatic connection. Correlations between the Estonian precipitation and treerings improved systematically with both the number of meteorological stations included and with the documented technical advances in the network of instrumental weather observations. The observed June precipiation explains roughly 20 percent of the tree-ring variance over the period when the network of weather observations is densest (1946–2009). On decadal and longer scales, the June precipitation explains higher portion of tree-ring variance, roughly 50 percent, over the full instrumental era (1866–2009). Comparison with previously published and similarly standardized tree-ring chronology from south-eastern Finland, based on Scots pine tree-rings, showed that the two chronologies exhibit several coinciding periods of ameliorated and deteriorated growth.
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