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Data collected during the period of 1956-2005 at 8 meteorological stations of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) situated along the Polish Baltic coast were used to provide a quantitative assessment of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) effects on variability of the maximum and minimum air temperatures at the coast. The data were coupled with the NAO (Jones) index values reflecting the difference between normalized atmospheric pressure in Gibraltar (the Azores High) and in Reykjavik (the Icelandic Low). In December-March, NAO effects explain 53-68% of the variability of the maximum air temperature along the coast, the variability of the minimum temperature being accounted for in 43-63%. As a rule, the positive NAO phase (index values > 2.0) brings about an increase in the extreme daily temperature, the negative phase (< –2.0) resulting in a significant reduction of the temperature. A unit increase in the NAO index results in the highest increase of the minimum temperature, by 1.4-2.1oC, in February and January, and in the increase of the maximum temperature by 0.9-1.5oC in those months.
This paper presents the basic features of annual course of air temperatures and the sum of precipitation (diversification of temperatures and precipitation in separate months and seasons). The paper also determines air temperature and precipitation fluctuations in 1861-2007 and the trends of changes. Finally, the relations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the air temperatures and precipitation sums are established.
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Subject of the study are changes of the water temperature occurring on the Polish Baltic coast during years 1951-2010 (in Kołobrzeg, due to deficiencies in the data, for the years 1957-2010). It is expressed in the form of a linear trend. The study was based on the monthly average temperature of the sea water in the following stations: Świnoujście, Międzyzdroje, Kołobrzeg, Władysławowo, Hel and Gdynia. For most of analyzed stations an increase in average annual temperature of the water were observed. The largest one was recorded in Gdynia. In Świnoujście there were no significant changes in water temperature except for the slight its drop in June. A significant increase in the water temperature occurred in Międzyzdroje in February, March, April and May; in Kołobrzeg in January and March; in Władysławowo in January, February, March, April and June and in Hel and Gdynia in February, March, April, May, July and August. The greatest changes were in April in Hel and Gdynia.
The impact of climate change on annual air temperature has received a great deal of attention from climatologists worldwide. Many studies have been conducted to illustrate that changes in temperature are becoming evident on a global scale. Air temperature, one of the most important components of climate parameters, has been widely measured as a starting point towards the apprehension of climate change and variability. The main objective of this study is to analyse the temporal variability of mean monthly temperature for the period of 1941 to 2010 (70 years). To detect the magnitude of trend in mean monthly temperature time series, we have used non-parametric test methods such as The Mann-Kendall test, often combined with the Theil-Sen’s robust estimate of linear trend. Whatever test is used, the user should understand the underlying assumptions of both the technique used to generate the estimates of a trend and the statistical methods used for testing. The results of this analysis reveal that four months – January, February, March and December – indicate a decreasing trend in average temperature, while the remaining eight months have an increasing trend. The magnitude of Mann-Kendall trend statistic Zc for this declining temperature and the magnitude of slope for the months of January, February and December are confirmed at the high significance levels of α = 0.001, 0.01 and 0.1 respectively. Though, the overall trend is positive for monthly as well as seasonally efficient time series.
A method of forecasting rainfall and mean temperature is presented. It is based on plant phenology and probability distribution of both random variables. This method makes it possible to give a forecast for each recorded phenological stage; the time horizon of the longest of them exceeds 90 to 100 days. A verification test based on data from different regions of Poland proved the method to be very efficient comparing to prediction using simple climate averages. It was applied to a case of 1982 and potato phenology, as an example.
The article analyses the air temperature characteristics of the winter season in Koszalin from 1850 to 2010. The trends of changes have been determined. In addition, the frequency of thermal anomalies has been shown. The thermal classification of Lorenc has been adopted for this study. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the air temperature in winter seasons has been estimated.
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