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An integrated ecological system model was used to determine the influence on Baltic phytoplankton of the long-term variability in the sea’s main physical parameters. A three-dimensional coupled sea-ice model was developed. A simple ecosystem was added to the sea-ice model and used to estimate phytoplankton variability during long-term changes in the main atmospheric forces. Scenarios similar to those of climate were performed by altering the main physical parameters such as temperature, wind speed, solar and thermal radiation (in different configurations). The influence of the variability in these parameters on phytoplankton is discussed.
We used a 3-D coupled seaice ecological model of the Baltic Sea to investigate the influence of long-term trends in average temperature, wind speed and solar irradiance on nutrients concentration and distribution of phytoplankton. We tested the sensitivity of the model to changes of the main physical parameters such as temperature, wind speed, solar and thermal radiation performing several numerical experiments with different configurations. Discussion about the relevance of the results for the expected future climate change is provided. The calculations were done for whole Baltic Sea for the period from 2004 to 2048. The results of the numerical simulations for the different areas of Baltic Sea (nine stations: Gulf of Gdańsk, Gdańsk Deep, Gotland Deep, Bornholm Deep, Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Bothnian, Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits) were presented. The simulations results show significant changes in phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentration distributions, which took place in the regions where a significant increase in currents (to 100 cm s-1) was found. The results of the numerical simulations for five years (2000– 004) are consistent with in situ observations for temperature and phytoplankton (Dzierzbicka-Glowacka et al. 2011b).
Sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea during six latest winters – 2010/2011 to 2015/2016 are analysed using coupled ice–ocean numerical model 3D CEMBS (3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea). Simulation results are compared with observations from monitoring stations, ice charts and satellite data. High correlation between model results and observations has been confirmed both in terms of spatial and temporal approach. The analysed period has a high interannual variability of ice extent, the number of ice days and ice thickness. Increasing number of relatively mild winters in the Northern Europe directly associated with climate change results in reduced ice concentration in the Baltic Sea. In this perspective, the implementation and development of the sea ice modelling approach (in addition to standard monitoring techniques) is critical to assess current state of the Baltic Sea environment and predict possible climate related changes in the ecosystem and their influence for human marine–related activities, such as fishery or transportation
The objective of this paper is to present an automatic monitoring system for the 3D CEMBS model in the operational version. This predictive, eco hydrodynamic model is used as a tool to control the conditions and bio productivity of the Baltic sea environment and to forecast physical and ecological changes in the studied basin. Satellite-measured data assimilation is used to constrain the model and achieve higher accuracy of its results. 3D CEMBS is a version of the Community Earth System Model, adapted for the Baltic Sea. It consists of coupled ocean and ice models, working in active mode together with the ecosystem module. Atmospheric forecast from the UM model (Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of the Warsaw University) are used as a forcing fields feed through atmospheric data model. In addition, river inflow of freshwater and nutrient deposition from 71 main rivers is processed by land model. At present, satellite data from AQUA MODIS, processed by the SatBałtyk project Operational System are used for the assimilation of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a concentration. In the operational mode, 48-hour forecasts are produced at six-hour intervals, providing a wide range of hydrodynamic and biochemical parameters
Knowledge related to land-use management impacts on the Baltic Sea ecosystem is limited. The constant release of pollutants into water bodies has resulted in water quality degradation. Therefore, only the innovative approaches integrated with research will provide accurate solutions and methods for proper environment management and will enable understanding and prediction of the impacts of land-use in the Baltic Sea region. Modelling approaches have become essential to address water issues and to evaluate ecosystem management. There are many water quality models, but only a few work in the operational mode and only some of them can be used as an interactive tool for environmental management to assess the impact of pollution on water quality. This study presents a new approach for investigating the influence of pesticides and nutrient fluxes from agricultural holdings and land-usestructures on coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. Called WaterPUCK, this method will enable calculation of the sufficient amount of fertilizers, investigation nutrients, and pesticide sources and model: the fate and distribution of nutrients and pesticides in the surface water and groundwater; loads of pollution to surface water and groundwater; fluxes of nutrients via submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) to the Baltic Sea coastal environment; the processes and mechanisms influencing the persistence of nutrients in the environment; and predict the changes in land use and climate change influence on the Bay of Puck ecosystem.
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