Postęp badań współczesnych wahań klimatu w drugiej połowie XX wieku

• Autorzy: Boryczka J.

Warianty tytułu

EN

The progress in recent research on climatic fluctuations in the second half of the 20th century

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

Current problems and results of recent climatic fluctuations research have been related to the condition in ycars 1890-1946, introduced in Gumiński 's publication - 35-letnie „okresy” wahań klimatycznych Brücknera w świetle klimatologii dzisiejszej, (1946). Bruckner's idea (1890) ofonce 35 year climatic fluctuations period (warm dry and cool humid phases occurring simultaneously on all continents), refuted by Gumiński - can not by accepted in the light of recent research. However, the 35 year precipitation period occurrcnce is stili an open question. Chronological precipitation sequenccs in Cracow (1850-1990) and in Colombo (1869-1980) show periodity 29.6 years and 37.9 years with amplitudes of 109.4 mm and 612 mm greater than in year cycle (63.3 mm and 59.5 mm). They are statistically important on the level of 0.05 according to Fisher-Snedecor's tests, and they also satisfy Schuster's rhythm reality criterion (presented by Gumiński). 29.6 year precipitation cycle in Cracow is synchronous to 30.5 year western circulation cycle in Europe (according to Wagenheim's classification 1891-1976). Moreover, it has been shown (on the example of RANNOR generator), that random numbers, with normal 0.1 distribution, can not be used for climatal reality cycles assessment. Simply, these are subjective judgements, depending on the type of random number generator - they depend on the generator's function. Random numbers with numbers N, can not be treated as a random trial. Made of random numbers chronological sequences (per analogy with measured magnitudes) with numbers N < 600, show a linear trend and „periodicity” resulting from trigonometrical functions (for example in the case of RANNOR generator).

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Prace i Studia Geograficzne
• Rocznik: 1998
• Tom: 22
• Opis fizyczny: s.51-63,wykr.,bibliogr.

Twórcy

autor

Boryczka J.

Bibliografia

• Boryczka J., 1993, Naturalne i antropogeniczne zmiany klimatu Ziemi w XVII-XXI wieku, Wyd. WGiSR, Warszawa
• Brückner E., 1890, Klimaschwankungen seit 1700, nebst Bemerkungen über die Klimaschankungen der Diluvialzeit, „Geogr. Abhandl”, IV, Wien
• Gumiński R., 1949, 35-letnie „okresy” wahań klimatycznych Brünera w świetle klimatotlogii dzisiejszej, „Wiadomości Służby Hydrologicznej i Meteorologicznej”, t. T, z. 4, Warszawa
• Hellmann G., 1936, Die Niederschläge in der Norddeutschen Stromgebieten, Berlin
• Lockyer N., 1902, Die Sonnentätigkeit 1833 bis 1900, „Met. Zft.”
• Liznar J., 1902, Über eine 33-jährige Periode der Sonnenflecken, „Met. Zft.”
• Schuster A., 1906, Sonnenfleckenperioden, „Met. Zft.”
• Trautmann E., 1940, Die Brücknersche Niederschlagschwankung über Europa, Veröff'. Geophys. Inst. Leipzig, Serie II, 7
• Wagner A., 1940, Klimeänderungen und Klimaschwankungen, Berlin
• Walanus A., Soja R., 1996, Statistical significe level in the method of fitting of many sine curves to the data series, „Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Jagielońskiego, Prace Geogr.”, z. 102.