A study of the K drought monitoring model

• Autorzy: Wang J. , Wang S. , Li Y. , He W. , Liu X. , Ren Y.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study established a K drought monitoring model to determinate the start, duration, and strength of drought. Based on 586 meteorological stations’ conventional observation data in China from 1961 to 2015, we calculated the elements and parameters needed to structure the model. Because soil has a memory of its antecedent moisture change, the drought intensity of a day is determined by the moisture content of the day and earlier days. Furthermore, the change of moisture content depends not only on precipitation but also on the temperature associated with evaporation. In order to consider the impact of previous precipitation and evaporation on the present drought, we made a cumulative treatment of previous precipitation and reference evapotranspiration. However, the influence degree of the antecedent precipitation and reference evapotranspiration on soil moisture is weakened closer to the present day. This means that the contribution of the precipitation and reference evapotranspiration in earlier days to present soil moisture decays over time. After comparison between the exponential decay form and the linear decay form of the previous precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, the scheme of linear decay form is selected. Then, a K drought monitoring model was established to consider the antecedent precipitation and reference evapotranspiration accumulation and their decay influence. The proposed K drought monitoring model can be used to evaluate the timing of drought onset, evolution process, and severity.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Environmental Studies
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: 27
• Numer: 1
• Opis fizyczny: p.335-343,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Wang J.

• Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, 2070 Donggang East Rd., Lanzhou 730020, China
• National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46 Zhongguancun South Rd., Beijing 100081, China

autor

Wang S.

• Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, 2070 Donggang East Rd., Lanzhou 730020, China

autor

Li Y.

• Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, 2070 Donggang East Rd., Lanzhou 730020, China

autor

He W.

• National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46 Zhongguancun South Rd., Beijing 100081, China

autor

Liu X.

• National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46 Zhongguancun South Rd., Beijing 100081, China

autor

Ren Y.

• National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46 Zhongguancun South Rd., Beijing 100081, China

Bibliografia

• 1. WILHITE D.A. Drought as A Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions. In: WILHITE D.A., (eds) Drought: A Global Assessment, London: Routledge, 3, 2000.
• 2. WANG J.S., LI Y.H., WANG R.Y., FENG J.Y., ZHAO Y.X. Preliminary analysis on the demand and review of progress in the field of drought meteorological research. Journal of Arid Meteorology. 30 (4), 497, 2012 [In Chinese].
• 3. ZHANG Q., CHEN L.H., WANG R.Y., XIAO G.J., LI Y., DENG Z.Y., WANG H.L., ZHAO H. Climate change and food, food safety in Northwest China. Journal of Arid Meteorology. 30 (4), 509, 2012 [In Chinese].
• 4. ZHAI J.Q., HUANG J.L., SU B.D., CAO L.G., WANG Y.J., JIANG T., FISCHER T. Intensity-area-duration analysis of droughts in China 1960-2013. Climate Dynamic. 48 (1), 151, 2017.
• 5. DAI A.G. Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2, 45, 2011.
• 6. DAI A.G. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Climate Change. 3, 52, 2013.
• 7. DAI A.G., ZHAO T.B. Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: Estimates of historical drought changes. Climatic Change. 2016, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2.
• 8. MA X., WU S.H., LI Y.E., ZHANG X.Y., GAO Q.Z.; WU Y. Rice re-cultivation in southern China: An option for enhanced climate change resilience in rice Production. J. Geogr. Sci. 23 (1), 67, 2013.
• 9. WILHITE D.A. Managing drought risk in a changing climate. Climate Research. 70, 99, 2016.
• 10. WILL P., JUSTIN S., ROBERT S., DOUGLAS C., ROGER P., JÜRGEN V.V., RICHARD R.H.J., MICHAEL J. B., MARK S., ROGIER W., ALBERT I.J.M.V.D., BENJAMIN L.H., FLORIAN P., MICHA W., EMANUEL D., FREDRIK W., WOLFGANG W., SIEGFRIED S., KINGTSE M., MARGARET N., LYNETTE B., LILIANA N., RENS V.B., MARC B., LUIS G.G..D.G., JOÃO G.Z.D.M., RICHARD L. Toward global drought early warning capability: Expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for monitoring and forecasting. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society. 776, 2013.
• 11. JASON A.O., MARTHA C.A., CHRISTOPHER H., MARK S. Using temporal changes in drought indices to generate probabilistic drought intensification forecasts. Journal of Hyrometeorology. 16, 88, 2015.
• 12. HAO Z.C., AGHA KOUCHAK A. A nonparametric multivariate multi-index drought monitoring framework. Journal of Hyrometeorology. 15, 89, 2014.
• 13. MCKEE T., DOESKEN N., KLEIST J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January. Anaheim, California, 1993.
• 14. HAYES M., SVOBODA M., WALL, N., WIDHALM M. The Lincoln Declaration on drought indices: Universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 485, 2011.
• 15. HENRY A.J. Climatology of the United States. Bulletin Q: Weather Bureau Bull. Washington, D C, U.S., 51, 1906.
• 16. MUNGER T.T. Graphic method of representing and comparing drought intensities. Mon. Wea. Rev. 44, 642, 1916.
• 17. BLUMENSTOCK G. Drought in the United States analyzed by means of the theory of probability. Washington, D.C.: United States Dept. of agriculture, Technical Bulletin. 1942.
• 18. VICENTE-SERRANO S.M., BEGUERIA S., LOPEZ-MORENO J.I. A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index - SPEI. J. Climate. 23, 1696, 2010.
• 19. MA Z.G., HUANG G., GAN W.Q., CHEN M.L. Multi- Scale temporal characteristics of the dryness/wetness over northern China during the last century. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 29, 671, 2005 [In Chinese].
• 20. WANG J.S., CHEN F.H., JIN L.Y., BAI H.Z. Characteristics of the dry/wet trend over arid central Asia over the past 100 years. Climate Research.41, 51, 2010.
• 21. ZHANG Q., ZOU X.K., XIAO F.J., LV H.Q., LIU H.B., ZHU C.H., AN S.Q. Classification of meteorological drought. GB/T 20481, People’s Republic of China national standard. Beijing: China Standard Press, pp, 17, 2006, [In Chinese].
• 22. PALMER W. Meteorological drought. Weather Bureau Research Paper 45, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, 58, 1965.
• 23. ZHAO H.Y., HOU M.T., LIU W.P., MA Y.L. Application of drought index in daily monitoring in Shanxi. Journal of Arid Meteorology. 32 (4), 505, 2014 [In Chinese]
• 24. ZHAO H.Y., GAO G., ZHANG P.Q., YAN X.D. The modification of meteorological drought composite index and its application in southwest China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science. 22 (6), 698, 2011 [In Chinese].
• 25. ZHANG Y. On the climatic uncertainty to the environment extremes: a Singapore case and statistical approach. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 24 (3), 1413, 2015.
• 26. ZHANG Y., CAO Y.Y. A fuzzy quantification approach of uncertainties in an extreme wave height modeling. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34(3), 90, 2015.
• 27. ZHANG Y., JASMINE S.L.L. Estimating the economic losses of port disruption due to extreme wind events. Ocean & Coastal Management. 116, 300, 2015.
• 28. ZHANG Y., MICHAEL B., SER T.Q. Long-term performance assessment and design of offshore structures. Computers & Structures. 154, 101, 2015.
• 29. WANG S.P., WANG J.S., ZHANG Q., LI Y.P., WANG Z.L. Applicability evaluation of drought indices in monthly scale drought monitoring in Southwestern and Southern China. Plateau Meteorology. 34 (6), 1616, 2015 [In Chinese].
• 30. WANG Z.L., WANG J.S., LI Y.H., WANG C.H. Comparision of application between Generalized Extreme Value Index and Standardized Precipitation Index in Northwest China. Plateau Meteorology. 32 (3), 839, 2013 [In Chinese].
• 31. SVOBODA M., DOUG L.C., HAYES M., HEIM R., GLEASON K., ANGEL J., RIPPEY B., TINKER R., PALECKI M., STOOKSBURY D., MISKUS D., STEPHENS S. The drought monitor. Bull. Amer. Mete. Soc. 8, 1181, 2002.
• 32. WANG S.P., WANG J.S., ZHANG Q., LI Y.P., WANG Z.L., WANG J. Cumulative Effect of precipitation deficit preceding severe droughts in Southwestern and Southern China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. Volume 2016, Article ID 2890852, 10 pages. http://dx.doi. org/10.1155/2016/2890852, 2016.
• 33. LU E. Determining the start, duration, and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation: Rationale. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12707, DOI:10.1029/2009GL038817, 2009.
• 34. ALLEN R.G., PEREIRA L.S., RAES D., SMITH M. Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Irrigation and drainage paper. 56, FAO, Rome, 1998.
• 35. WANG S.P., DUAN H.X., FENG J.Y. Drought situation and its impacts and causes in spring 2011. Journal of Arid Meteorology. 29 (2), 261, 2011 [In Chinese].
• 36. WANG J.S., WANG S.P., ZHANG Q., LI Y.P., WANG J., ZHANG J. Characteristics of drought disaster-causing factor anomalies in southwestern and southern China against the background of global warming. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 24 (5), 2241, 2015.
• 37. WANG J.S., LI Y.P., REN Y.L., LIU Y.P. Comparison among several drought indices in the Yellow River Valley. Journal of Natural Resources. 28 (8), 1337, 2013 [In Chinese].

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15244/pjoes/74901