Prediction of yellow lupin yield (Lupinus luteus L.) for northern Poland using weather-crop model

• Autorzy: Grabowska K. , Kuchar L. , Dymerska A.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Prognozowanie plonu łubinu żółtego (Lupinus luteus L.) w północnej Polsce przy użyciu modelu pogoda-plon

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents an analysis of the impact of meteorological factors (solar radiation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature, precipitation) on the development and yield of yellow lupin Parys cultivar in the northern Poland in the years 1987–2008. Using multiple regression methods (linear and quadratic function) created regression equations that were estimated using the coeffi cients of determination (R2, R2 adj and R2 pred – using the Cross Validation procedure). Selected regression equation used to estimate the yield of yellow lupin, using generated – by means of model WGENK – daily values of global radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and climate change scenario GISS Model E for Central Europe. Examined dependencies weather-yield of lupine seeds (cultivar Parys) allowed the application of the chosen model to forecast yields from the time when the values are independent variables in the model by the end of the growing season. The comparison of distributions of actual and simulated yields shows that real yields are slightly (by 0.06 t·ha–1) higher than those generated for 2 × CO2 conditions.

PL

W pracy przedstawiono analizę wpływu czynników meteorologicznych (promieniowania słonecznego, temperatury maksymalnej, średniej i minimalnej oraz opadów atmosferycznych) na rozwój i plonowanie łubinu żółtego odmiany Parys w północnej Polsce w latach 1987–2008. Przy użyciu metody regresji wielokrotnej (funkcje liniowa i kwadratowa) utworzono równania regresji, które oszacowano za pomocą współczynników determinacji (R2, R2 adj i R2 pred – wyznaczonego przy użyciu procedury Cross Validation). Wybrane równanie regresji zastosowano do określenia plonowania łubinu żółtego, wykorzystując wygenerowane – za pomocą modelu WGENK – dobowe wartości promieniowania całkowitego, temperatury maksymalnej, temperatury minimalnej i opadów oraz scenariusz zmian klimatu GISS Model E dla Europy Centralnej. Zbadane zależności pogoda plon nasion łubinu (odmiana Parys) umożliwiły zastosowanie wybranego modelu do prognozy plonów od momentu uzyskania wartości zmiennych niezależnych będących w modelu do końca wegetacji. Z porównania rozkładów plonów rzeczywistych i symulowanych wynika, że plony rzeczywiste są nieznacznie (o 0,06 t·ha–1) wyższe niż wygenerowane na warunki 2 × CO2.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Northern Poland; yellow lupin; Lupinus luteus; weather-crop modelling; yield prediction; weather condition; climate change

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: 46
• Numer: 3
• Opis fizyczny: p.233-245,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Grabowska K.

• Department of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Warmia and Mazury, ul.Plac Lodzki 1, 10-724 Olsztyn, Poland

autor

Kuchar L.

• Department of Applied Mathematics, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, ul.Grunwaldzka 53, 50-357 Wroclaw, Poland

autor

Dymerska A.

• Department of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Warmia and Mazury, ul.Plac Lodzki 1, 10-724 Olsztyn, Poland

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/sggw-2014-0019