Limits to randomness in paleobiologic models: the case of Phanerozoic species diversity

• Autorzy: Sepkoski J J ,Jr
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The question of how random, or unconstrained, paleobiologic models should be is examined with a case study: Signor’s (1982, 1985) inverse calculation of levels of marine species diversity through the Phanerozoic. His calculation involved an ingenious model that estimated species numbers and species abundances in the world oceans of the past by correcting known numbers of fossil species for variations in sedimentary rocks available for sampling and in effort paleontologists might devote to sampling. The model proves robust to changes in possible shapes of species-abundance distributions, but it is sensitive to alterations in the assumption that paleontologists collect fossils at random. If it is assumed that ease of collecting varies with age of sediment (with the Cenozoic offering easy sampling) or that paleontologists tend to seek out rarer fossils, results of the inverse calculation change. In particular, the magnitude of the calculated Cenozoic diversity increase always declines from the factor of about seven as originally reported to something considerably smaller. This leaves open the problem of the magnitude of Cenozoic increase in marine species diversity, awaiting better empirical data and, perhaps, more exacting models, random or otherwise.

PL

Rzeczywista liczba gatunków współwystępujących w poszczególnych horyzontach czasowych przeszłości może być oszacowana w oparciu o znajomość liczby zidentyfikowanych gatunków kopalnych i liczby skamieniałości znalezionych w poszczególnych jednostkach czasu geologicznego. Liczba zebranych skamieniałości jest proporcjonalna do stopnia rozpoznania oraz powierzchni zajmowanej przez osady jednostek geologicznych. Rozumowanie umożliwiające takie szacunki oparte jest na założeniu lognormalnego rozkładu częstości gatunków w stosunku do liczebności ich osobników i losowego charakteru opróbowania paleontologicznego. Zaburzenie lognormalności rozkladu nie wpływa istotnie na wiarygodność szacunków. Nie jest również istotnym czynnikiem zaburzającym zróżnicowane trwanie gatunków rzutujące na wyliczenia w oparciu o różnej wielkości jednostki geologiczne. Istotnym problemem jest natomiast zdecydowanie nielosowy charakter opróbowania paleontologicznego, na przykład zmniejszający się udział czynników diagenetycznych w zachowaniu do dziś skamieniałości kenozoicznych tudzież skłonność badaczy do skupiania uwagi na rzadkich i niezwykłych skamieniałościach.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

ewolucja; skamienialosci; kenozoik; gatunki; paleontologia; liczebnosc

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Acta Palaeontologica Polonica
• Rocznik: 1993
• Tom: 38
• Numer: 3-4
• Opis fizyczny: s.175-198,rys.,wykr.,bibliogr.

Twórcy

autor

Sepkoski J J ,Jr

• University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA

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