Seasonal and inter-annual variation of precipitation in Iraq over the period 1992-2010

• Autorzy: Mail S.M. , Somorowska U. , Al-Sulttani A.H.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Sezonowa i wieloletnia zmienność opadu w Iraku w latach 1992-2010

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Iraq suffers from severe droughts, which are an inherent feature of its changing climate conditions. The shortage of water has a negative impact on agricultural land and is associated with a high risk of desertification. Thus, the identification of wetness conditions over a multi-year period is a challenging issue. In this paper, monthly and annual precipitation figures from twenty weather stations in Iraq were analyzed in order to provide insight into the seasonal and inter-annual variation and temporal trends in precipitation over the period of 1992-2010. The non-parametric rank-based Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect trends in annual series and the Kendall-Theil robust line was used to quantify their magnitude. The Mann-Kendall test statistic shows negative values for all stations and this emphasizes a climate change trend toward scarcity in precipitation. Most of the stations show a high significance level of more than 95%, white at the stations of Amarah, Baghdad, and Salahadeen only a drying signal was detected. The rate of change for Iraq amounts to 3.5% of mean annual precipitation calculated for the years 1992-2010.

PL

Irak doznaje wyjątkowo dotkliwych susz, które są nieodłącznym elementem zmieniających się warunków klimatycznych. Niedobory wody spowodowane niedostatkiem opadów mają niekorzystny wpływ na rolnictwo, a ponadto potęgują ryzyko pustynnienia. Z tego względu istotnym zagadnieniem jest ocena zasilania opadem Iraku w skali wieloletniej. W niniejszej pracy analizowano miesięczne i roczne sumy opadu zarejestrowane na dwudziestu stacjach meteorologicznych w Iraku, głównie w jego części centralnej i wschodniej. Celem pracy była analiza zmienności sezonowej opadu na podstawie sum miesięcznych, a także ocena trendów czasowych zaznaczających się w seriach czasowych rocznych sum opadu w latach 1992-2010. Do wykrycia i zbadania istotności statystycznej zastosowano regresję liniową oraz nieparametryczny test Manna-Kendalla. Uzyskano ujemne wartości statystyki testu Manna-Kendalla dla wszystkich stacji meteorologicznych, co świadczy o tendencji malejącej rocznych sum opadu. Większość stacji wykazuje istotne zmiany na poziomie istotności statystycznej powyżej 95%, natomiast na stacjach Al-Amara, w Bagdadzie i Salahadeen wykryto zmiany w kierunku malejącym, ale nieistotne statystycznie. Średnie tempo zmniejszania się opadów oszacowano na 3.5% średniej sumy rocznej opadów w wieloleciu 1992-2010.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Prace i Studia Geograficzne
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: 61
• Numer: 3
• Opis fizyczny: p.71-84,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Mail S.M.

• Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
• Department of Geography, Faculty of Education - Ibn Rushd, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq

autor

Somorowska U.

• Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Al-Sulttani A.H.

• Department of Regional Planning, College of Physical Planning, University of Kufa, Najaf, Iraq

Bibliografia

• Abbasa N., Wasimia S., Al-Ansari N. 2016, Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of Al-Adhaim, Iraq using SWAT model, Engineering 8, 716-732, doi: 10.4236/eng.2016.810065.
• Al-Salihi A.M., Al-Lami A.M., Altimimi Y.K., 2014, Spatiotemporal analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall trends for Iraq, Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science 25(1), 153-168, Al-Mustansyriah University.
• Al-Ansari N., Abdellatif M., Ali S.S., Knutsson S., 2014, Long term effect of climate change on rainfall in northwest Iraq, Central European Journal of Engineering 4(3), 250-263.
• Azooz A.A., Talal S.K., 2015, Evidence of climate change in Iraq, Journal of Environment Protection and Sustainable Development 1(2), 66-73.
• Duhan D., Pandey A., 2013, Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901-2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India, Atmospheric Research 122, 136-149.
• Falkenmark M., 2013, Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 371, 1471-2962, 20120410, http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0410.
• Granato G.E., 2006, Kendall-Theil Robust Line (KTRLine-version 1.0) - a visual basic program for calculating and graphing robust nonparametric estimates of linear-regression coefficients between two continuous variables, in: Techniques and Methods of'the U.S. Geological Survey, book 4, chap. A7, U .S. Geological Survey, 31 p.
• Grey D., Garrick D., Blackmore D., Kelman J., Muller M., Sadoff C., 2013, Water security in one blue planet: twenty-first century policy challenges for science, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 371, 1-10, http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0406.
• Hartmann D.L., Klein Tank A.M.G., Rusticucci M., Alexander L.V., Brönnimann S., Charabi Y., Dentener F.J., Dlugokencky E.J., Easterling D.R., Kaplan A., Soden B.J., Thorne P.W., Wild M., Zhai P.M., 2013, Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, [in:] T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley (eds), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Helsel, DR & Hirsch, RM 2002, 'Statistical Methods in Water Resources', in Techniques of Water Resources Investigations, Book 4, chap. A3, U.S. Geological Survey, 522 p.
• IPCC 2013, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds. TF Stocker, D Qin, GK Plattner, M Tignor, SK Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex & PM Midgley, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Longobardi A., Villani P., 2009, Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area, International Journal of Climatology 30 (10), 1538-1546.
• Mondal A., Kundu S., Mukhopadhyay A., 2012, Rainfall trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test: A case study of north-eastern part of Cuttack district, Orissa, International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environment al Sciences, vol. 2, no. 1, 70- 78.
• Muslih K.D., Błażejczyk K., 2016, The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941-2013, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, first online: 26 August 2016, doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1915-6.
• Osman Y., Al-Ansari N., Abdellatif M., Aljawad S.B., 2014, Expected future precipitation in central Iraq using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator, Engineering 6, 948- 959.
• Radziejewski M., Kundzewicz Z.W., 2004a, Detectability of changes in hydrological records, Hydrological Sciences Journal 49(1), 39-51, DOI: 10.1623/hysj.49. 1.39.54002.
• Radziejewski M., Kundzewicz Z. W., 2004b, Development, use and application of the HYDROSPECT data analysis system for the detection of changes in hydrological time-series for use in WCP-Water and National Hydrological Services, WCASP-65, Hydrospect, Version 2.0. User's manual, WMO, Geneva.
• Shubbar R.M., Salman H.H., Lee D.I., 2016, Characteristics of climate variation indices in Iraq using a statistical factor analysis, International Journal of Climatology, first published: 11 May 2016, doi: 10.1002/joc.4749.
• Theil H., 1950, A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Part 3: Proceedings of Koninalijke Nederlandse Akademie van Weinenschatpen A. 53, 1397-1412.
• USGS 2004, Shuttle Radar Topography Missio' , 3-Arc Second scenes for IRAQ, Unfilled
• Unfinished 2.0, Global Land Cover Facility, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, February 2000.
• Zakaria S., Al-Ansari N., Knutsson S., 2013, Historical and future climatic change scenarios for temperature and rainfall for Iraq, Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 7(12), 1574-1594.