Ekonomiczne skutki likwidacji kwot mlecznych w Unii Europejskiej - wyniki symulacji z wykorzystaniem modelu AGMEMOD

• Autorzy: Hamulczuk M. , Stanko S.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Economic effects of the abolition of milk quota system in the European Union - simulation results based on the AGMEMOD model

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

The paper provides an analysis of the implications of dairy policy reform on the agricultural market in the EU and in individual Member States. Both a theoretical study of the production control programme and model-based quantitative simulation of the effects of milk quota system abolition are presented in the paper. The results obtained in empirical analysis indicate that gradual expansion of milk quotas and elimination thereof in the end lead to market conditions changes which affect farmer's decisions and regional distribution of production in the EU. According to simulation results, EU milk production would increase by 4.8% causing a decrease of milk prices by around 7% as a result of milk quota abolition. The relatively slight scale of these changes leads to the conclusion that external factors concerning world situation are more important for the future EU milk market development than the changes in the milk quota system. Consumers are the main beneficiaries of the reform. They would benefit from declining prices of dairy products. According to the CAPRI model simulations, overall loss of agricultural incomes in the EU due to milk quota abolition could total 2.0%, including losses of dairy farmers' incomes – 5.8%.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Unia Europejska; kwoty mleczne; likwidacja; skutki ekonomiczne; symulacja; model AGMEMOD; produkcja mleka; producenci; dostawcy; rynek mleczarski; polityka interwencyjna

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej
• Rocznik: 2009
• Numer: 4
• Opis fizyczny: s.3-7,rys.,tab.,bibliogr.

Twórcy

autor

Hamulczuk M.

• Szkola Glowna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego, Warszawa

autor

Stanko S.

Bibliografia

• Agriculture in the European Union. Statistical and Economic Information. Report 2008.
• Banse M., Tangermann S.: Agricultural implications of Hungary’s Accession to the EU – partial versus general equilibrium effects. 50th EAAE Seminar „Economic Transition and the Greening of Policies: New Challenges for Agriculture and Agribusiness in Europe” 1996.
• Conforti P.: The Common Agricultural Policy in main partial equilibrium models. Osservatorio sulle Politiche Agricole dell'UE, INEA, Working Paper No. 8, 2001.
• Chantreuil F., Hanrahan K.: AGMEMOD EU Agricultural Market Outlook. Drustvo Agrarnih Ekonomistov Slovenije, DAES 2007.
• Chantreuil F., Donnellan T., van Leeuwen M., Salamon P., Tabeau A., Bartova L.: EU dairy quota reform – AGMEMOD scenario analysis. XIIth Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Ghent, Belgium 2008.
• Chantreuil F., Tabeau A., Van Leeuwen M.: Estimation of impact of EU agricultural policies on the world market prices. Modeling of agricultural and rural development policies. Sevilla 2008. Paper prepared for presentation at the 107th EAAE Seminar „Modelling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies". Sevilla, Spain, January 29th-February 1st, 2008.
• Donnellan T., Hanrahan K., McQuinn K., Riordan B.: Policy analysis with AGMEMOD model: dealing with diversity in the EU agri-food sector. RERC 2002. Paper prepared for presentation at the EAAE Congres 2002.
• Esposti R., Camaioni B.: Technical report on the modeling structure, AGMEMOD WP2 D2, Project no. SSPE-CT-2005-021543, 2007.
• Gardner B. L.: The economics of agricultural policies. McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, USA 1990.
• Garforth C., Rehman T.: Review of models for agricultural policy. Analysis Research Project EPES 0405/17. Project Report No. 5 The University of Reading 2006.
• Hamulczuk M.: Modele równowagi cząstkowej w prognozowaniu i symulacjach na rynku rolnym; model AGMEMOD. Zeszyty Naukowe Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, T. 4 (19) 2008.
• Jongeneel R., Tonini A.: The „Milk quotas rent puzzle” in the EU: economic significance, review and policy relevance. Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 109th Seminar, November 20-21 2008, Viterbo, Italy 2008.
• Moro D., Nardella M., Sckokai P.: Regional distribution of short-run, medium-run and long-run quota rents across EU-15 milk producers. Paper presented at the XIth European Association of Agricultural Economists congress, Copenhagen 2005.
• Phasing out milk quotas in the EU (editor D. Colman). Centre for Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics School of Economic Studies, The University of Manchester 2002. https://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/milkquota/
• Regional economic analysis of milk quota reform in the EU (editor T. Fellmann). European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2009.
• Réquillart V., Bouamra-Mechemache Z., Jongeneel R. and Penel C.: Economic analysis of the effects of the expiry of the EU milk quota system. Report prepared for the European commission, IDEI, Toulouse 03.2008.
• Rolnictwo w 2002 r. GUS, Warszawa 2003.
• Rolnictwo w 2008 r. GUS, Warszawa 2009.
• Rozporządzenie Rady (WE) nr 1782/2003 z 29.09.2003 r., Dziennik Urzędowy Unii Europejskiej.
• Rozporządzenie Rady (WE) nr 1787/2003 z 29.09.2003 r., Dziennik Urzędowy Unii Europejskiej.
• Rozporządzenie Rady (WE) nr 583/2004 z 22.03.2004 r., Dziennik Urzędowy Unii Europejskiej.
• Rozporządzenie Rady (WE) nr 72/2009 z 19.01.2009 r., Dziennik Urzędowy Unii Europejskiej.
• Rozwój rynku mleczarskiego i zmiany jego funkcjonowania w latach 1990-2005 (red. J. Seremak-Bulge). IERiGŻ-PIB, Warszawa 2005.
• Seremak-Bulge J.: Wpływ kwotowania na funkcjonowanie rynku mleka [w:] Rozwój sektora rolno-spożywczego w Polsce na tle tendencji światowych (red. A. Kowalski, M. Wigier). IERIGŻ-PIB, Warszawa 2008. Ekonomiczne skutki likwidacji kwot mlecznych w Unii Europejskiej 19
• Seremak-Bulge J.: Liberalizacja WPR oraz likwidacja kwot mlecznych po 2014 r. to szansa dla polskiego mleczarstwa czy zagrożenie? [w:] Wspólna Polityka Rolna Unii Europejskiej. Uwarunkowania, mechanizmy, efekty (red. M. Adamowicz). Wydawnictwo SGGW, Warszawa 2009, s. 85-97.
• Tongeren F., van Meijl H.: Review of applied models of international trade in agricultural and related resource and environmental modelling. Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Report 5.99. (EU-Fair VI-CT 98-4148, interim Report 1) 1999.
• Tongeren F. van Meijl H., van Surry Y.: Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: A review and assessment. Agricultural Economics, 26:149-172, 2001.