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2018 | 27 | 4 |

Tytuł artykułu

Change point detection and trend analysis of rainfall and temperature series over the vellar river basin

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

EN

Abstrakty

EN
Rainfall and temperature have been extensively considered as an initial point toward the apprehension of climate change progressions, establishing one of the important constituents of the hydrological cycle. The purpose of the present study is to examine the variability of rainfall and temperature for better understanding of the hydrological environment of the river basin located in northern Tamil Nadu. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were employed for monthly, seasonal, and annual temperatures, and also for annual maximum daily rainfall, seasonal, and annual rainfall statistics. A change point detection test was applied for annual maximum and minimum, mean temperature, and annual precipitation series. The results revealed that all the monthly, seasonal, and annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures have a significant greater rising trend. The magnitude of increasing trends in NEM (northeast monsoon) and SWM (southwest monsoon) are greater than that of summer and winter seasons for almost all the rain gauge stations. The maximum temperature and minimum temperature change points are identified in the years 1985 and 2001 and 1987 and 2013, respectively. From the mean annual temperature, it is seen that the change point is present in 1983-88 and 2000-04 at 100% confidence interval.

Słowa kluczowe

Wydawca

-

Rocznik

Tom

27

Numer

4

Opis fizyczny

p.1673-1681,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

  • Centre for Water Resources, College of Engineering, Anna University, Guindy, Chennai-600025, India
autor
  • Centre for Water Resources, College of Engineering, Anna University, Guindy, Chennai-600025, India

Bibliografia

  • 1. HARTMANN D.L., TANK A.M.K., RUSTICUCCI M., ALEXANDER L.V., BRONNIMANN S., CHARABI Y.A.R., DENTENER F.J., DLUGOKENCKY E.J., EASTERLING D.R., KAPLAN A., SODEN B.J., THORNE P.W., WILD M., ZHAI P.M. Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, 159, 2013.
  • 2. JAIN S.K., KUMAR V. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science. 102 (1), 37, 2012.
  • 3. GAO P., DENG J., CHAI X., MU X., ZHOU G., SHAO H., SUN W. Dynamic sediment discharge in the Hekou-Longman region of Yellow river and soil and water conservation implications. Science of The Total Environment. 578, 56, 2017.
  • 4. NOURI M., HOMAEE M., BANNAYAN M. Quantitative trend, sensitivity and contribution analyses of reference evapotranspiration in some arid environments under climate change. Water Resources Management. 31 (7), 2207, 2017.
  • 5. OZGUR K.I.S.I., OKAN E.R.A.Y., CIHAN M.E.R.T. Trend analysis of long term temperatures in Tbilisi, Georgia. Journal of Technical Science & Technologies. 5 (2), 59, 2017.
  • 6. ZARENISTANAK M., DHORDE A.G., KRIPALANI R.H. Trend analysis and Change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature series over southwest Iran. Journal of earth system science. 123 (2), 281, 2014.
  • 7. JAISWAL R.K., LOHANI A.K., TIWARI H.L. Statistical analysis for change detection and trend assessment in climatological parameters. Environmental Processes. 2 (4), 729, 2015.
  • 8. SIVAKUMAR A.T., THENNARASU A., RAJKUMAR J.S.I. Effect of season on the incidence of infectious diseases of bovine in Tamilnadu. Elixir Meteorology. 47, 8874, 2012.
  • 9. SHARMA S., SWAYNE D.A., OBIMBO C. Trend analysis and change point techniques: a survey. Energy, Ecology and Environment, 1 (3), 123, 2016.
  • 10. HUANG H., WANG Z., XIA F., SHANG X., LIU Y., ZHANG M., DAHLGREN R.A., MEI K. Water quality trend and change-point analyses using integration of locally weighted polynomial regression and segmented regression. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 24, 1, 2017.
  • 11. BATISANI N., YARNAL B. Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy. Applied Geography. 30 (4), 483, 2010.
  • 12. KARPOUZOS D.K., KAVALIERATOU S., BABAJI-MOPOULOS C. Trend analysis of precipitation data in Pieria region (Greece). European Water. 30, 31, 2010.
  • 13. OBASI R.A., IKUBUWAJE C.O. Analytical study of rainfall and temperature trend in catchment states and stations of the Benin-Owena river basin, Nigeria. Journal of Environment and Earth Science. 2 (3), 9, 2012.
  • 14. SALARIJAZI M., AKHOND-ALI A.M., ADIB A., DANESHKHAH A. Trend and change point detection for the annual stream-flow series of the Karun River at the Ahvaz hydrometric station. African Journal of Agricultural Research. 7 (32), 4540, 2012.
  • 15. KENDALL M.G. Rank correlation methods, Charles Griffin, London, 1975.
  • 16. MANN H.B. Non parametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society. 13 (3), 245, 1945.
  • 17. SEN P.K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 63 (324), 1379, 1968.
  • 18. THEIL H. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Part I, II, III, In Proceedings of Koninalijke Nederlandse Akademie van Weinenschatpen A. 53, 386, 512, 1397, 1950.
  • 19. TAYLOR W.A. Change-Point Analyzer 2.3 software package, Taylor Enterprises, Libertyville, Illinois, 2000, online may be assessed at http://www.variation.com/cpa/tech/change point (3 January 2017).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikatory

Identyfikator YADDA

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