Extreme rainfalls as a cause of urban flash floods; a case study of the Erbil-Kurdistan region of Iraq

• Autorzy: Mustafa A.M. , Muhammed H.H. , Szydlowski M.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Gwałtowne opady deszczu jako przyczyna powodzi w miastach; studium przypadku miasta Irbil w Kurdyjskim Okręgu Autonomicznym w Iraku

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Aim of the study The current paper aims to give a detailed evaluation and analysis of some extreme rainfall events that happened in the last decade in terms of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, intensity rate, and exceedance probability. Moreover, it examines the effects of each analysed aspect on the resulting flash floods in the studied area. Material and methods In their glossary of meteorology, American Meteorology Society (AMS) subdivided rainfall intensity types into four groups (light, moderate, heavy, and violent). Also, for estimating the exceedance probability, lognormal distribution was applied as a statistical model of the precipitation probability distribution function. Results and conclusions Out of six episodes, five of the analysed events were classified as heavy rainfall. However, the duration of those heavy rainfall events was not more than two hours. Four events of maximum daily rainfall (for a 39-year dataset) were rated at 1–10% of exceedance probability. To conclude, the current study can be an initial step in modelling hydrological events in the studied area, and in the process of transforming precipitation into the outflows of urban basins in the future.

PL

Cel badań Badania miały na celu szczegółową ocenę i analizę niektórych ekstremalnych zdarzeń opadowych w ostatniej dekadzie – pod kątem przestrzennego i czasowego rozkładu opadów, wskaźnika intensywności i prawdopodobieństwa przewyższenia. Rozpatrujemy także wpływ każdego z analizowanych aspektów na nagłe zjawiska powodziowe występujące na badanym obszarze. Materiały i metody W słowniku meteorologicznym Amerykańskiego Towarzystwa Meteorologicznego (AMS) opady deszczu podzielono pod względem intensywności na cztery grupy (lekkie, umiarkowane, intensywne i gwałtowne). Ponadto do oszacowania prawdopodobieństwa przekroczenia zastosowano rozkład logarytmiczny jako model statystyczny funkcji rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa opadów. Wyniki i wnioski Pięć spośród sześciu analizowanych zdarzeń sklasyfikowano jako intensywne (ulewne) deszcze. Jednak czas trwania intensywnych opadów deszczu nie przekraczał dwóch godzin. Prawdopodobieństwa przewyższenia dla czterech zdarzeń maksymalnych dziennych opadów (dla 39-letniego zbioru danych) oszacowano na 1–10%. Podsumowując, przedstawione tu badania mogą stanowić pierwszy krok do modelowania zjawisk hydrologicznych na badanym obszarze, co w przyszłości może być przydatne do kształtowania odpływów ze zlewni miejskich.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: 18
• Numer: 3
• Opis fizyczny: p.113-132,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Mustafa A.M.

• Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, 80-233 Gdansk, Poland

autor

Muhammed H.H.

• Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, 80-233 Gdansk, Poland

autor

Szydlowski M.

• Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, 80-233 Gdansk, Poland

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