PL
W artykule przedstawiono prognozę popytu na mieszkania w najbliższych latach. We wskaźniku uwzględnione zostały czynniki wynikające z sytuacji mieszkaniowej (niedobór statystyczny i wielkość istniejących zasobów), demograficznej (zmiany liczby mieszkańców w ostatnich latach i prognozy, struktura wiekowa), ekonomicznej (dochody ludności, bezrobocie, przedsiębiorczość) oraz inwestycyjnej (pokrycie obowiązującymi planami miejscowymi i potencjał ludnościowy). Prezentowana metoda nawiązuje do wcześniejszego opracowania autora (Śleszyński 2005). Porównanie prognozy sprzed 3 lat z ruchem budowlanym w następnych latach potwierdza poprawność konstrukcji wskaźnika popytu.
EN
These research studies refer to the previous paper of the author (Śleszyński 2005), which presents estimation of average period demand for dwellings via disaggregating of communes on the basis of data from 2002. It was assumed that this index ought to take into consideration free market conditions, as well as demographic, economic and investment factors. It is assumed that under free market conditions the demand is in direct proportion to a number of completed dwellings, which is an indicator of balance between demand and supply. In total, the index contains ten characteristics: 1) percentage of missing dwellings, that is a difference between a number of households and a number of dwellings, according to census in communes (May 2002); 2) average floor area per person in communes (2005); 3) real growth in communes (December 2002 - December 2005); 4) percentage of population aged 20-39 in communes (December 2005); 5) number of population forecasts in counties (2002-2005); 6) average salary in counties (2005); 7) number of unemployed per 1,000 persons; 8) business entities per 1,000 inhabitants in communes (2005); 9) size (potential) of the local market, measured by a number of population within 30 kilometres from the central point of the commune; 10) commune area covered by local zoning plan (December 2005). Cartographic analysis clearly proves a dichotomic division, well-known in social sciences (especially in economic geography), into metropolises and peripheral areas. High values of demand in the metropolitan areas are the effect of strong inflow of inhabitants (especially in the suburban areas, related to the suburbanization phenomenon) and high earnings. Low values of demand in peripheral areas are predominantly caused by depopulation processes and low purchasing power of inhabitants. The summary underlines suitability of analyses from a practical point of view. Applying the forecasts is mainly related to the potential investment movement, as well as to the necessity of diversification of spatial policy on the part of the communes, as it is particularly important to secure appropriate land for housing construction, which should be included in the land use plans and local zoning plans. The suggested improvements concern a larger diversification of indices, and an attempt to conduct more methodically advanced analyses. It would be advisable to watch for many years the time series of particular variables and multiple regressions upon the observed housing supply in various administrative and functional categories of communes, as there is a difference between urban housing (usually multi-family) and rural housing (overwhelmingly one-family). It would be highly suitable to conduct research on estimation of the demand and to present it in absolute values, that is estimate a specific number of completed houses in terms of detailed spatial disaggregation. The presented analysis allows also making some predictions concerning directions for development of the housing market. Considering various demands, it may be assumed that there will be an intensifying process of stratification as regards satisfying the housing needs. A significant improvement of the housing situation in Poland can be achieved mainly by increasing personal incomes of Polish citizens, which could overcome the economic barrier making it difficult to buy a dwelling, especially in view of growing property prices after accession to the European Union.