Prognoza rozwoju i rozmieszczenia ludności w województwie suwalskim do roku 1990

• Autorzy: Jedrzejczyk D.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Prognosis of growth and distribution of population in the Suwalki Province until 1990

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

The human element is contemporarily considered to be one of the most crucial factors in the social - economic development of the region. The knowledge of the people's resources and the distribution of population is a starting point to constructing a model of economic development of the region. The prognosis of growth and distribution of population of the Suwałki region was based on the past developmental tendencies measured with the so-called geometric weighted average. The calculated yearly rate of changes in the density of country population and changes in the number of town population for four peniods (1950-1960, 1950-1975, 1960-1970, and 1970-1975) made it possible to define the tendencies of changes incoming in the future. The number of population is treated as a function of time lapse. In this case the extrapolation formula was used which permits to calculate the number of population for any point of time provided that the number of population in the starting moment and the yearly rate of growth are known. In this way the total number of population of the Suwałki Province, the number of town population and the density of country population in the communal system were calculated for the year 1990. The population of the Suwałki Province will grow as compared with the year 1975 by 9-15% reaching the walue of 450-480 thousand inhabitants. Although the urbanization ratio will grow to the level of 50-51 %, i.e. Almost by 10 points, it will differ much from the national level. Two towns will prevail in the town network, i.e. Suwałki and Ełk, counting about 42-55 thousand inhabitants. On the otheir hand, a group of the smallest towns will not undergo any substantial changes. Almost half of the total number of towns will consist of iowns having less than 5.000 inhabitants. Therefore, these centres having a relatively small demographic and economic potential, will have a bearing on the urbanization level and its spacial differentiatton. The system of settlements shaped in this way will have a substantial influence on the distribution of country population. Generally, the country areas will undergo de-population. According to the most moderate variant, assuming preservation of the tendencies from the years 1960-1970, it is expected that only the population in the central region of the province (delimited by the railway line Ełk - Olecko - Gołdap) will be preserved. It is obvious that the outflow of people from the country areas cannot be infinite. The social - economic consequences depends obviously on the degree of industrialization, investment of fixed assets, character of settlement system, or finally on the forms of agricultural economy. However, it is necessary at present to seek methods of keeping a considerable part of youth in the country in order that the region may not be de-populated derivatively and the agricultural production may not be disturbed. Preservation of the above discussed tendencies may also limit to a great extent the rational utilization of natural resources of the Suwałki Province, may restrain not only the development of agriculture, but also the tourist – recreation services.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Prace i Studia Geograficzne
• Rocznik: 1985
• Tom: 06
• Opis fizyczny: s.103-133,rys.,tab.,bibliogr.

Twórcy

autor

Jedrzejczyk D.

Bibliografia

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• [2] D. Jędrzejczyk, Zmiany w rozmieszczeniu ludności w woj. suwalskim w latach 1946-1975, ,,Nauka i Praktyka” nr 1, 1978.
• [3] W. Kusiński, Wybrane problemy demograficzne woj. suwalskiego, ,,Nauka i Praktyka” (w druku).
• [4] M. Latuch, Migracje wewnętrzne w Polsce na tle industrializacji (1950-1960), Warszawa 1970.
• [5] Ludność i zasoby mieszkaniowe w latach 1946-1974 według podziału administracyjnego kraju z 1 czerwca 1978 r., GUS, Warszawa 1976.
• [6] A. Pressat, Analiza demograficzna, Warszawa 1966.
• [7] K. Secomski, Prognostyka, Warszawa 1971.
• [8] I. Timofiejuk, Mierniki wzrostu gospodarczego, Warszawa 1973.
• [9] I. Timofiejuk, Stopa wzrostu gospodarczego. Metody liczenia, Warszawa 1973.