EN
The objective of this paper is to assess and forecast (scenario) changes in effectiveness of geography teaching, taking place as a result of transformation of education system. Assessment of education system reform is based on analysis of the survey conducted among teachers and results of the tests taken by students in their second year in secondary junior schools in 2000 and 2010. The scenario assumes mainly a decrease of teaching level and education quality. Discrepancies between theoretical assumptions and school practice, both in relation to curricula, grading system, school-system funding, supervision and management in education are the main threats to decreasing effectiveness of teaching.