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This study developed a hybrid wavelet–bootstrapartifi cial neural network (WBANN) model for weekly (one week) urban water demand forecasting in situations with limited data availability. The proposed WBANN method is aimed at improving the accuracy and reliability of water demand forecasting. Daily maximum temperature, total precipitation and water demand data for almost three years were used in this study. It was concluded that the hybrid WBANN model was more accurate compared to the ANN, BANN and WANN methods, and can be applied successfully for operational water demand forecasting. The WBANN model simulated peak water demand very effectively. The better performance of the WBANN model indicated that wavelet analysis signifi cantly improved the model’s performance, whereas the bootstrap technique improved the reliability of forecasts by producing ensemble forecasts. The WBANN model was also found to be effective in assessing the uncertainty associated with water demand forecasts in terms of confi dence bands; this can be helpful in operational water demand forecasting.
The water resources of the Lake Tana catchment are largely untapped. Currently, water resource development is being promoted to stimulate economic growth. This study utilized the WEAP model to determine the likely impact of a number of possible development scenarios on lake water levels. For each scenario, the model was used to simulate water demand in three sectors (i.e. irrigation, hydropower and downstream environmental flows) over a 36-year period of varying flow and rainfall. The simulation results revealed that if all the planned development occurs on average 2198 GWhy-1 power could be generated and 677 Mm3 y-1 of water supplied to irrigation schemes. However, the mean annual water level of the lake would be lowered by 0.44 meters. As well as adverse ecological impacts this would have significant implications for shipping and the livelihoods of local people.
The paper presents results of floristic research on vascular plants in the abandoned limestone quarry in Tyniec. Altogether, 104 species representing 26 families were found. The species composition of the plant communities in the quarry was characteristic of dry grassland and meadow communities. The degree of synanthropization was 97.1%. Carlina acaulis was the only protected species found in the quarry.
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