In the article, the author presents the results of the survey on correctness of forecasts of the monthly trade outlook formulated by the CSO in 1993-2008. Based on 180 monthly series of statistical data, there is verified correctness of 4 procedures of forecasting the monthly business outlook related to all 9 types of trade enterprises presented in the CSO statistics as well as 3 variables, for which the CSO formulates forecasts and evaluations. There are taken into account four characteristics of business condition: a type, dynamics, strength and correlation. The results obtained suggest that clearly better results, reaching sometimes even 90%, were obtained by small enterprises and those from the food sector. The least correct forecasts of business condition were formulated at large enterprises and at those from the motor vehicle sector.
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