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Biological invasions are one of the most important problems of nature conservation, which affect several branches of forestry and game management. In case of recent invasions, there is a problem with assessment of invasion intensity due to insufficient quantity of data. In Poland, eight of 31 game species are alien and three small predators are serious threat to biological diversity. The most recent of them is raccoon (Procyon lotor L.). Similarly to studies about rodents and flu, we tested potential of Google search engine to assess whether it may be used as a proxy for species abundance, by downloading search index of phrase 'szop pracz' (i.e. raccoon). We decomposed time series of search intensity in weak intervals into trend, seasonal and remainder, and identified sources of variability within these elements. We also proved, that this time series may be modeled using four moving average model, according to ARIMA technique. Seasonal element was connected with species biology – raccoon was recorded less frequently in winter, due to its lower activity in this time. Remainder was connected with entertainment and law regulation news in most popular websites, which resulted the peak of search index in 2009, when there was a change in length of hunting season for raccoon. Moreover, we proved that annual sums of search indices were positively correlated with hunting gain of raccoon (p<0.05; R²=0.34), thus studied time series is connected with biological phenomena of raccoon invasion. Our results show that search engine queries may be useful in predicting and reconstruction of biological invasions.
Hunting is among main pathways for intentional introductions of alien species. However, some of these species became pests and the main aim of their management is reducing population numbers. Raccoon dogs, raccoons and American minks were originally introduced outside the Polish territory and immigrated here around 1950s. Immigrants, supported by animals that escaped or were released from fur farms and hobby collections, established and spread to the level that makes their complete eradication unrealistic, despite since 2009 they can be hunted throughout the year and trapped. The only practicable management option for raccoon dog and American mink is long-term local control in areas of high natural value. The rate of invasion of raccoon can still be slowed down if more intensive control is applied. Efficiency of control of all three species in Poland is hindered by legal solutions which restrict hunting tolls to numbers approved at the beginning of the season. Justification of drastic control methods is questioned by different stakeholders, including some hunters, particularly if they are unlikely to have significant influence on the scale of invasion. Direct control of aliens species should therefore be accompanied by protection of native enemies and competitors, including protection of their habitats, and awareness-raising campaigns on reasons and consequences of biological invasions and means to reduce this problem.
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