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Climate change is known to have number effects on plants and animals. Several studies have indicated advances in laying dates of birds in the last ca. 40 years, which could be attributed to air temperatures. The research was conducted in the village of Mokrice, a part of the Hrvatsko Zagorje region (northwestern Croatia). We studied the long-term variation in the laying date of Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica in order to examine their breeding phenology in relation to mean spring temperature. The Barn Swallow is a common bird species in the study area. We found a significant correlation between the first laying date and year. The coefficient of regression (slope = – 0.36) for Barn Swallows indicates an earlier breeding by 0.36 days per year, or 10 days over the period of the study (1979–2007). Our studies suggested that date of clutch initiation in the studied population is influenced by spring temperatures.
The Polish breeding population (3,200-3,250 males) of the globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola represents almost 25% of the global population. Except for the relatively stable large population in the Biebrza valley in north-east Poland less is known about population trends of peripheral populations in western, central and south-eastern regions of the country and whether trends differ depending on region. We investigated the long-term population dynamics in 38 small populations between 1969-2013 in the four Polish regions. Summarizing the trends of all small populations of Aquatic Warblers showed a significant decline in total number of individuals and declining number of populations over time. However, population trends were distinctly different in the different regions, with stable dynamics in south-east, moderate decline in north-east and sharp decline in the central and western regions. During the study period 19 out of 38 populations became extinct (11 populations in the western region, two in central region, four in north-east region and none in the south-east region). Five of these populations were later recolonised thus suggesting a pattern of metapopulation dynamics. To mitigate the negative trends and increased risk of local and regional extinction in the western and central parts of Poland effort should be put to increasing dispersal among populations by increasing the number of stepping stone patches between the viable large eastern populations and the smaller central and western ones.
W oparciu o serię obserwacyjną dobowych maksymalnych wartości temperatury powietrza półrocza letniego tj. od początku maja do końca października z lat 1961-2007 dokonano oceny tendencji zmian liczby dni z maksymalną temperaturą w zadanych przedziałach co 1°C (od 0,1 do 40,0°C) we Wrocławiu-Swojcu. Identyczne analizy przeprowadzono również dla wielolecia 1971-2000, które uznawane jest jako norma. Stwierdzono tendencję wzrostową najwyższych wartości maksymalnej temperatury powietrza w maju na przestrzeni lat 1961-2007, czego nie obserwowano w przypadku wielolecia 1971-2000. Zauważalny wzrost ekstremów majowych przypada na ostatnie dziesięciolecie. Uzyskane istotne tendencje najwyższych wartości w czerwcu i październiku dla okresu 1971-2000 nie potwierdziły się dla ciągu rozszerzonego 1961-2007. Analizy przeprowadzone na ciągach 46-letnich wykazały wzrost częstości występowania wartości maksymalnej temperatury powietrza w maju w przedziałach 24,1-25,0°C, 25,1-26,0°C i 30,0-31,0°C, w lipcu w przedziałach 23,1-24,0°C oraz 33,1-34,0°C, 34,1-35,0°C, natomiast w sierpniu w przedziałach 27,1-28,0°C i 29,1-30,0°C.
Many papers over recent years have demonstrated long-term temporal trends in biological parameters that can only be explained by global warming. I examined the long-term trends in the brood size of Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in Mokrice area (north-western Croatia). I collected data from 1977 to 2007. To investigate the effect of spring temperatures on the brood size, local air temperature was used. The significant correlation (P <0.01) between mean brood size and the year (y = – 31.403 + 0.018x) indicates that brood size (mean number of nestlings per nest) increased by 0.018 nestling per year, or 0.54 nestling over the period of the study. Correlation between brood size (mean number of nestlings per nest) and mean spring temperature was also significant (P <0.05) and regression equation (y = 4.162 + 0.07x) indicates that brood size increased by 0.07 nestling per 1ºC. The correlation between mean spring air temperature and research year was significant (P <0.01). This data show that the mean May temperature has been increasing in the study area. We can conclude that Starlings in north-western Croatia are increasing their brood size and that the most likely cause is a long-term increase in spring temperatures.
In the present study, we used 37-year long dataset on Tawny Owls from the annual monitoring of nestboxes at a sample plot in Central Lithuania. We expected that Tawny Owls responded to changes in land use practices, stemming from a change in both political and economic system, which may affect prey abundance and composition, breeding performance and demography. To analyze temporal changes in monitored parameters, we divided the study period into three phases (1978-1989,1990-2001 and 2002-2014), corresponding to different socio-economic conditions. The number of nesting pairs of Tawny Owls decreased significantly in the last 13 years of the study, but the number of successful pairs fluctuated without any trend. The clutch size and number of nestlings varied without significant trends, but nesting success improved over the last 13 years. Annual apparent survival probability of the female Tawny Owls did not vary significantly over the study period (model averaged values between 0.71 and 0.73). Owls occupied nestboxes irrespective to the distance from the agricultural land during the first two study periods, but since early 2000s, owls tended to occupy nestboxes located deeper in the forest. Birds and small mammals were similarly important as prey items by biomass. Since the 1990s, the share of Microtus voles significantly decreased in the diet, while that of birds increased. In summary, changes in the diet, improved nesting success of the Tawny Owl and tendency of nesting in forest interior may indicate ongoing complex responses to the changes in environmental conditions.
Temporal variations (1994–98) in nutrient distribution were analysed in the Polish sector of the Baltic Sea with reference to long-term (1979–98) fluctuations of hydrological and chemical factors. Between 1994 and 1998 the winter accumulation of phosphate declined noticeably in most of the regions with the exception of the Gulf of Gdańsk. The winter peaks of silicate were also reduced in the offshore region and in the waters along the central Polish coast, but continued to accumulate in the bays owing to riverine input. In the offshore region a decrease in the winter accumulation of nitrate was noted in the surface water layer whereas in the bays nitrate concentrations continued to increase. Large quantities of nitrate continue to accumulate in the Gulf of Gdańsk, although at a slower rate than in 1979–93.
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