Forecasting the value of real estate is an essential element that should be taken into account by the investor in the process of financing an investment. A similar situation can be observed in the process of land management. In such cases, the reliability of the model used for real estate value prediction becomes a key issue. The geostatic model is designed to be used for diagnosing the land market system in the past and in the present (at the moment the forecast is generated). It then becomes a prognostic geostatic model used for forecasting. Geostatic models can be developed based on a set of artificial neural networks. A set of neural networks is a set of many trained monolithic neural networks, which are combined into one set to eliminate faults assigned to single network models, as well as to improve generalization capability and resistance. The aim of the present study was to develop and test in practice a set of measures enabling to evaluate the quality of a forecasting model as well as its generalization capability.
The precision of insect number determination in forest litter using a method, in which the sample element comprised 10 plots of 0.5 m2 each, was compared with that of the method, in which the sample element consisted of one plot of 5 m2. Investigations were conducted in four pine stands aged 59-80 years. The number of cocoons of Diprioninae found in the litter was counted. It was found that the precision of the compared methods was very low at a slight density of cocoons and it increased with an increase in their density. It would not be justified to say that the two compared methods of measurement for sawfly cocoon density differ in terms of their precision.
Małopolskie voivodship (according to the National Census, 31.03.2011) was inhabited by 3337,5 thousand people. This fact settled the voivodship on the fourth position in the ranking with respect to the size of the population after Mazowieckie, Śląskie and Wielkoposkie voivodship. At the same time one can notice that this population constitutes 8,7% of the total number of people in the country. In the cities of Małopolska there were 1641 thousand people (7% of city population in Poland and the fifth position after Śląskie, Mazowieckie, Dolnośląskie and Wielkopolskie voivodships). Rural areas were inhabited by 1696,5 thousand people, which constituted 11,2% of the total population of rural areas in Poland. This placed the voivodship on second position after Mazowieckie voivodship in the ranking with respect to the size of rural population. Since last National Census (2002) Małopolska population has increased by 105,1 thousand people, that is 3.3%. It was the second – after Pomorskie voivodship (4,4%) rate of increase of the number of people. Over this period the number of people in the whole country increased only by 0,7% on average. The increase of the number of people concerned both cities and rural areas in Małoopolska. In case of cities the estimated increase was merely 0,9%, but on average the number of people inhabiting cities dropped by 0,9%.The increase of number of people in case of rural areas was much more significant – it reached the level of 5,7% (3,3% in the whole country). The number of people in rural areas increased systematically generally due to high migration from cities and positive natural growth. According to M. Małopolskie voivodship has a very large number of small farms. On the other hand, the number of people living from farming has been constantly decreasing, which is parallel to processes taking place in the whole country. [Bogusz, Paluch 2011].
The purpose of the work was to present the results of simulation studies of river runoff carried out with the use of a conceptual model specially developed for this purpose for an urbanized lowland catchment. Different variants of forecasts were developed of the impact of introducing various forms of urbanization on the formation of river runoff during freshets in the small, lowland catchment of upper Mławka river, covering the area of 66 km². For the needs of the research, classification of urbanized areas was made based on their location within the catchment, and the method of discharging rainfall runoff. Particular variants differed from one another as to the location of sealed areas, the degree of urbanization of the catchment, the initial waterlogging of the catchment, as well as the basic precipitation assumed for calculations. They provided the foundations for the assessment of the impact of various forms of urbanization of the catchment area on the formation of freshets, taking into account the catchment’s natural properties, such as the occurrence of variable source areas. The subject of the analysis was not only the total runoff volume, but also its components – surface, subsurface and groundwater runoff. Analysis of the results of river runoff simulation, taking into account the components of this runoff, leads to the conclusion that the total increase of direct runoff volume and its peak value are caused not only by direct supply from sealed surfaces, but also from indirect impact, causing changes in the runoff regime in areas not covered by urbanization. Sealed and channelled areas located beyond the maximum range of active (variable source) areas, on which direct runoff does not occur in natural conditions, increase the runoff area in the scale of the catchment area as a whole. To compare, the peak freshet values for variants associated with urbanization and channelling outside the variable source areas are between 20% and 40% higher than in the case of analogous conditions and the sealing of the same area in the area of direct runoff.
The aim of this paper was to analyse and compare states of Norwegian and Polish dairy markets in last years, as well examine their prospects. The study was based on FAO, Statistics Norway, Central Statistical Office of Poland, MarketLine industries profile data for period 2009-2014 and it included following issues: market data of volume and value, its forecast, category and geographic segmentation, market shares and distribution channels. There also reviewed profiles of leading companies, as well was analysed Porter’s five forces driving of those markets. Norwegian market is smaller than Polish seven times in terms of volume and with but only twice smaller in terms of value. Norwegian dairy market is oligopolistic while Polish is highly competitive.
A half-century of forest inventory research involving statistically-valid fieldmeasurements (using statistically representative sample size and showing confidence limits) and well-validated forecasting methods are reviewed in this paper. Some current procedures overestimate global and large-scale forest biomass, carbonstorage, and carbon sequestering rates because they are based on statistically-invalid methods (errors in estimates are unavailable and unreported), or they fail to consider key dynamic characteristics of forests. It is sometimes assumed that old-growth forests can serve as fixed, steady-state storage of biomass and carbon for indefinitely long periods, but it is shown by both modelling and remote sensing that forests are dynamic systems, the state of which can change considerably over as shorta time as a decade. Forecasting methods show that maximum biomass and carbon storage in some important forest types occurs in mid-succession, not in old-growth. It is proposed, therefore, that realistic biomass and carbon storage estimates used for carbon credits and offsets be determined as the statistical mean minus the confidence interval and that practical carbon sequestering programs include specific timeframes, not indefinitely long periods of time.
This article discusses the formation and evolution of the coastal zone of the southern Baltic from the decay of the last Scandinavian ice-sheet, which took place some 14 ka BP. During the first 4 ka, the shores of the then southern Baltic basins were shaped under the dominant influence of considerable variations in water level and the young, post-glacial topography emerging from under the ice. Later, until the beginning of the Atlantic transgression, the shores were also unstable, because sea level changes resulting from periodic connections with the World Ocean followed one another in rapid succession. Since that transgression destroyed much of the former shoreline, its reconstruction is at best highly problematical, and in some places no longer possible. The maximum range of the Litorina Sea gave rise to a coastal zone that in many places is to this day quite conspicuous in the local topography and sediments. During the last 4 ka, the shoreline has changed relatively little, thus the present shoreline is largely redolent of the original one. In the coming 100 years or so, the abrasion of the cliffs along the southern Baltic shore will probably accelerate, as will the retrogradation of certain sections of the shoreline, with the result that the shoreline will be less of a straight line than it is at present. Land up to a height of 1 m above sea level will be inundated. The greatest changes in the lie of the shoreline are to be expected in the River Wisła (Vistula) delta and around the Zalew Szczeciński (Oderhaff, Szczecin Lagoon).
The article analyzes applicability of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models for forecasting monthly demand for electric energy among recipients in rural areas. In particular, quality of forecasts was evaluated, made on the basis of two prepared linear fuzzy models differing with the number of fuzzy rules. It was concluded that forecasts calculated on the basis of both these models can be considered permissible, and the models can be used for prediction of monthly demand for electricity, whereas greater accuracy was achieved by forecasts made on the basis of the model described with four fuzzy rules.
On the basis of the experimental data of COBORU the time and spatial distribution of the dates of sowing, harvesting and of the cucumber (conserve varieties) growth stages in western Poland was characterized. The length of the conserve cucumber growth periods varied more in the years 1965–2004, and it was on average seven times as large as the length of agrotechnical and phenological periods and the largest was the period from fruit setting to the beginning of harvesting (v = 57%), and the smallest was attributed to the date of sowing (v = 3%). During 1965–2004, a linear trend was proved and it was found to be negative for almost all phenological dates, for harvesting and for the length of conserve cucumber growth periods, except for the date of sowing and the period from the end of emergence to the beginning of fruit setting. On the basis of the date of sowing, the former phenological dates and the time trend, the dates of phenological stages, harvesting and the length of cucumber vegetation periods can be separately forecast in the area of western Poland with the accuracy of 92.3 to 99.3%. The length of the period from sowing to the end of conserve cucumber harvesting in western Poland (113 days) was longer by 46 days than that of the period from sowing to the beginning of harvesting and at the same time it was slightly less differentiated spatially.