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The study presents the results obtained following the analysis of the so-called Granger causality between daily and monthly temperatures of air and water for the period 1987–2013 carried out for the Noteć river and its two main tributaries: Drawa and Gwda. Granger causality relates to a situation where the data concerning past values of one time series provide important information helping to predict values of another series not included in the information about its past values. The analysis was based on the Granger causality test (of the first order). A causality relationship was established for daily temperature series both for the air-water and water-air directions of influence, which means that forecasting the pattern of river water temperatures from changes to air temperatures can yield better results when done based on data from the previous day. The model forecasting daily water temperature in the Noteć river on the basis of water and air temperatures from the previous day explained 0.07–0.27% of unique variance more than the model that used only water temperature from the previous day. The model forecasting the daily air temperature based on air and water temperatures from the previous day explained 0.3–0.79% of the variance more than the model, which uses only the air temperature from the previous day. For monthly series of water and air temperatures, different configurations of correlations in terms of Granger causality were established: one-way in water-air direction or no correlation, which may result from the river water thermal regime being disturbed by the local impact of anthropogenic factors. In addition, the analysed effect of Granger causality between series of random fluctuations of both temperature models confirmed that causal dependencies occur in both directions. The identification of causal relationships in terms of Granger causality confirms the influence of one data series on the evolution on another data series, and it defines the application potential of study results for the purpose of forecasting the changeability of thermal parameters of river waters. The obtained results may help improve the quality of forecasting changes in water thermal conditions, which is important for managing their environmental condition properly.
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Analysis of temperature measurements in the Polesye and the republic in general revealed the presence of two warmings during the period of observations (~120 years). The warming of the 1930's is of radiation origin and relates to the atmospheric purification from volcanic powder. The heating took place in summer. Modem warming is that of winter type. Its origin is related to the increase of greenhouse gases content in the atmosphere. Changes in precipitation taking place for of many years are of great complexity. In the south part of the republic during the postwar period the amount of precipitation decreased by about 100 mm when compared to the preceding half-century. In the north Belarus a rise of precipitation for the past two decades is observed. The amelioration of southern areas of Belarus and the adjacent territories resulted in temperature variation in southern part of our state by 0.3-0.4 °C, precipitation by 10-35 mm in summer. Temperature and precipitation variation patterns differ in the first and second part of summer.Analysis of the range of daily temperature course, as well as temperature maxima and minima for big towns revealed anthropogenic "signal" that must stressed be while assessing variations in daily course ranges. Interpretation of the features of temperature variability in space and time in towns and suburbs was presented.
A complex of techniques and methodics to investigate heat, moisture and water soluble peat soils compounds transfer characteristics has been described.Water-physical characteristics and characteristics of peat soils heat and mass transfer of Belarus and Poland have been provided. The characteristics obtained may be used to prognosticate and optimize temperature and moisture and peat soils saline regimes.
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