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1

Classification by multiple regression - a new approach towards the classification of extremes

100%
Enke W., Spekat A., Kreienkamp F.
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
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2016
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tom 04
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nr 1
There are numerous algorithmic classification methods that attempt to address the connections between different scales of the atmosphere, such as EOFs, clustering, and neural nets. However, their relative strength lies in the description of the mean conditions, whereas extremes are poorly covered by them. A novel approach towards the identification of linkages between large-scale atmospheric fields and local extremes of meteorological parameters is presented in this paper. The principle is that a small number of objectively selected fields can be used to circumscribe a local meteorological parameter by way of regression. For each day, the regression coefficients form a kind of pattern which is used for a classification based on similarity. As it turns out, several classes are generated which contain days that constitute extreme atmospheric conditions and from which local meteorological parameters can be computed, yielding an indirect way of determining these local extremes just from large-scale information. The range of applications is large. (i) Not only local meteorological parameters can be subjected to such a regressionbased classification procedure. It can be extended to extreme indicators, such as threshold exceedances, yielding on the one hand the relevant atmospheric fields to describe those indicators, and on the other hand grouping days with “favourable atmospheric conditions”. This approach can be further extended by investigating networks of measurement stations from a region and describing, e.g., the probability for threshold exceedances at a given percentage of the network. (ii) The method can not only be used as a filtering tool to supply days in the current climate with extreme conditions, identified in an objective way. The method can be applied to climate model projections, using the previously found parameter-specific combinations of atmospheric fields. From those fields, as they constitute the modelled future climate, local time series can be generated which are then analysed with respect to the frequency and magnitude of future extremes. The method has sensitivities (i) due to the degree to which there are connections between large-scale fields and local meteorological parameters (measured, e.g., by the correlation) and (ii) due to the varying quality of the different fields (geopotential, temperature, humidity etc.) projected by the climate model.
2

Climate analysis as a basis for a sustainable water management at the Lusatian Neisse

86%
Pluntke T., Schwarzak S., Kuhn K., Lunich K., Adynkiewicz-Piragas M., Otop I., Miszuk B.
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
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2016
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tom 04
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nr 1
Current and future climate conditions and their impact on water balance, ecosystems, air quality and bioand agro-climatology were investigated in the region of the Lusatian Neisse within the two EU -projects – NEYMO and KLAPS. This work focuses on the climate analysis of the region at the German-Polish border as a preliminary step for a hydrological analysis of current and future conditions. Observed climatological data were processed and analysed using the indicators air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, potential evapotranspiration and the climatic water balance (CWB). The latter defines the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and is a measure for the climatological water availability in the region. Observations were used to statistically downscale data from Global Circulation Models under various scenarios regarding greenhouse gas emissions (A1B, RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) and applying the WETTREG-method for regionalization. In total, 50 climate projections for periods up until the end of the 21st century were analysed, with the application of the mentioned indicators. For the period 1971-2010, increasing trends of temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and potential evapotranspiration were found. This leads to a reduced CWB in the summer half-year (SHY), which could be partly compensated by an increase in the winter half-year (WHY). Trends of temperature, sunshine duration and potential evapotranspiration remain positive for the far future (2071-2100), but precipitation decreases. These climatic conditions aggravate water availability, especially in the SHY. Impacts on water management are very probable and were therefore further investigated in the NEY MO project that applied hydrological models.
3
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The climate of Slupsk

86%
Baranowski D., Kirschenstein M.
Baltic Coastal Zone. Journal of Ecology and Protection of the Coastline
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2010
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tom 14
This study is an attempt to provide a comprehensive and synthetic characterisation of Słupsk climate based on a homogeneous series of daily measurements covering the longest possible period. Apart from the temperature and precipitation profiles derived from a 58-year examination record (1950-2007), the climate analysis also presents the distribution of other key weather components (atmospheric pressure, wind, relative humidity and cloud cover) in a shorter (1991-2007) time-span. The paper, which is a summary of the existing research into Słupsk climate, is directed not only at geographers (for whom it may be a significant reference in research concerning weather conditions in other Polish towns), but also at local residents and tourists, who choose Słupsk as their holiday destination.
4

Field-scale intercomparison analysis of ecosystems in partitioning surface energy balance components in a semi-arid environment

72%
Sridhar V., Billah M. M., Valayamkunnath P.
International Journal of Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology
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2019
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tom 19
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nr 1
5
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Current and future agroclimate conditions in Poland in perspective of climate change

58%
Acta Agrophysica
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2017
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tom 24
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nr 2
The paper is a compilation of results, which indicate the scale of possible changes of agroclimate that will occur as a result of the ongoing global warming on Polish territory. Calculations on the future meteorological elements were performed using WGENK weather generator. The 300 variants were obtained of possible annual weather courses dating to the beginning of the second half of this century, and corresponding annual indices of the A1 scenario developed by the IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). According to the local climate-factors, obtained data indicate that there are possible situations satisfying assumptions A1 main scenario, exceeding the current climate indicators in terms of temperature, radiation and precipitation, both downward and upward. Apart from this it is possible to greatly expend of the growing season as well as a higher frequency of certain adverse events such as frosts and drought periods. Due to the inability to accurately predict the weather in the perspective of decades and because the main indicators of climate can be realized locally in the form of multiple variants of weather on an annual agricultural production results are difficult to unambiguously determine. Agricultural productivity will certainly significantly be changed, but regardless of global change will have important local factors.
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