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The effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy models

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Subject and purpose of work: Research targeted at verification of effectiveness of the selected Polish models of forecasting bankruptcy of an enterprise has been presented within the article. Materials and methods: Within the research financial data from the years 2009-2012 have been used, obtained from 110 companies out of which 55 are companies which underwent bankruptcy and 55 which did not. Discriminant analysis as well as logit models and method of aggregated assessment have been applied. Results: Due to the frequent low quality of classification obtained via single models a method which may be called as aggregated method was suggested, which is based on the assessment of situation of a single unit on indications of the majority of models. This method allowed to increase the correctness of identification up to 87,3%. The share of incorrect identifications is rather high and amounts to 12,7%. Conclusions: The author is of the opinion that the assessment of situation of an entity may not be based solely on the indications of models of bankruptcy prognosis. This assessment may be treated solely indicatively, especially when consequences of a decision made on this basis (i.e. decision on granting a loan) may significantly impact further position of such entity and its surroundings.
Subject and purpose of work: The deliberations undertaken within the article concern identification of the phenomenon of businesses indebtedness in the Polish reality, inseparably linked with the economic security of companies in the contemporary market environment. The aim of this study is to show the interactions occurring between the phenomenon of indebtedness and data on bankruptcy of businesses in Poland, and their interpretation. Materials and methods: The work was elaborated based on the analysis and synthesis of subject literature, statistical data, analysts’ opinions, as well as on research and the author’s own considerations. Results: Discussion on the interdisciplinary approach of the concept of economic security, and the irreversible consequences of its incompetent management. Lead to reflections on the creditor–debtor relations. It shows a change in the mentality and in actions of Polish debtor over the last 20 years; its consequences for companies in the form of bankruptcy/insolvency, and proposals for improvements introduced by the State–level regulations. Conclusion: Regardless of the business in which the company operates, the imposing of uncollected debts on a creditor may threaten their and related entities’ existence. Researches indicate a need for the amendment to restructuring and insolvency law.
Thanks to the tools and methods used nowadays in the financial sector, management of an enterprise in not only aware of the financial performance but is also able to assess the risks by which the company is threatened and thus prepare for necessary changes. The paper main purpose was to describe and apply the commonly used tools of the bankruptcy risk assessing. The methods were applied on four companies of the polish meat sector. Two of them went bankrupt in 2012 and other two are still operating. The paper indicates both advantages and limitations of the methods used.
The aim of this study was to assess the financial situation of enterprises producing feeds, focusing on the potential risk of bankruptcy. Selected Polish models of discriminant analysis were used for the assessment of the financial condition of enterprises. Studies have shown that between the years 2006 to 2011, Cargill Polska, De Heus and Polmass had a good financial situation. The situation of PPUH Pasz Konspol and Fel Pasz was unfavourable, whereas Agrocentrum and Eurolpol were in a poor situation between 2007 and 2008. The assessment of the financial condition, by means of the applied early warning models, was not unequivocal for medium and small enterprises.
In the following article the most important parameters characterising the enterprises' structure in Poland have been presented, with special regard to the SMEs (small and medium enterprises) sector. Furthermore, the attempt was taken to determine key bankruptcy causes, including financial problems, globalization and macroeconomic shocks. The study is based on the data culled from the annual reports of Coface Poland, a credit reporting agency, on company bankruptcy in Poland and macroeconomic data disclosed by the Central Statistical Office (CSO).
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