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Wood Warblers Phylloscopus sibilatrix have declined considerably throughout most of their north and western breeding range in Europe but the causes of this decline are unknown. Declines may be related to factors on the breeding grounds, stopover sites and/or wintering grounds. We used multi-isotope (δ²H, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) measurements of winter-grown feathers of 314 individuals breeding in the Białowieża Forest (E Poland) to infer where they wintered in sub Saharan Africa over a 4-year period from 2009-2012. We used both aspatial and spatially specific assignment techniques involving a previously developed clustering algorithm related to long-term patterns of precipitation (δ²H) and theoretical plant-based isoscapes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) for Africa. We determined that our breeding population was consistently assigned to the forested region of the Congo basin. Males were more depleted in ¹³C and ²H and more enriched in ¹⁵N than females suggesting potential sexual habitat segregation on the wintering grounds. We then similarly examined less extensive samples from Wood Warblers breeding in England, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and Karelia (NW Russia), and found a similar assignment to the Congo basin. For all sites, males were isotopically distinct from females suggesting sex-specific habitat segregation on the wintering grounds. Our geospatial assignment model now provides a protocol for testing the hypothesis that declining populations winter more in heavily fragmented forests of west Africa compared to the Congo basin. We encourage this approach for the investigation of migratory connectivity in other sub Saharan Afrotropical migrants.
The reproductive behaviour of Wood Warblers was studied in a primeval forest area in the Białowieża National Park (E Poland). Observations carried out during twelve seasons (1976-1979, 1985-1988, 2002-2005) in deciduous and coniferous old-growth habitats spanned a 30-year period. The present paper examines whether the birds advanced their breeding dates during that time and whether any long-term shifts in fecundity or productivity were detectable. Though temperatures in the settlement period (the second half of April) rose, neither males nor females significantly advanced their dates of arrival. Wood Warblers bred earlier in 2002-2005 than in the two previous periods — the combined effect of earlier female arrival and shortening of post settlement breaks. Clutch size declined with season, was smaller in the coniferous habitat and in rodent outbreak years, but no long-term trend was perceptible. Apart from two exceptionally successful years (2003 and 2004) breeding losses remained high during the whole study. Predation was responsible for 80-95% of them and was concentrated on the nestling stage. Overall Wood Warbler phenology and breeding performance in BNP have changed relatively little during the last 30 years. These findings support the results of other studies demonstrating the remarkable resilience of this primeval forest biota to environmental change.
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