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Obieg substancji chemicznych w zlewni Polary

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Paper presents the results of investigation in the Pożary basin located within the Kampinos National Park (central Poland). Almost 40% of basin area are wetlands enclosed partly in strictly protected areas. The main task in the first phase of project was the recognition of environment components influencing on migration of chemical substances. In May 1999 the measurement network (mostly piezometers) in the Pożary basin was established and 20 measurement sessions between June 1999 and June 2000 have been made. Investigation focused on following parameters: amount of precipitation, stream flow, groundwater level, as well as chemical properties of rain-, stream and groundwater: conductivity, pH, redox potential, hardness, concentration of dissolved Oxygen, Calcium, Ammonium, total Iron, Chloride, Nitrite, Nitrate, Phosphate and Sulphate. The results of field measurements are pointing at biogeochemical processes acting in the wetlands and groundwater recharge from outside the basin as the main source of chemicals. Higher concentration of Nitrate and Phosphate in groundwater, observed in the southern part of the basin seems to be an evidence of outer farming activity impact on protected area. Investigation was granted by Polish Committee for Scientific Research.
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Integrated Monitoring of the Natural Environment programme has been implemented in Poland in 1993. After 11 years of observations collected data series have been summarized in 2006. IMNE base station "Pożary" is located within Kampinos National Park near Warsaw. This paper presents results of precipitation, river runoff and groundwater level measurements performed in this station. Between 1994 and 2004 strong decrease of annual precipitation totals has been observed in "Pożary" research basin. As a result continuous lowering of groundwater levels appeared in observed wells. Due to decreasing of groundwater recharge, river runoff shows strong variability and tendency to disappear in summer period.
The global warming is important factor influencing changes in water circulation. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed in the last decades have enabled assessment of global warming effect. The goal of this study is to apply the mathematical rainfall - runoff model to evaluate the rate and direction of changes in flood formation resulting from climate changes using historical data and generated by ECHAM4 GCM in 5 selected basins in Poland. The study confirm that main factors controlling flood formation in present are precipitation intensity, topography and land cover. According to modeling results in the perspective of 80 - 90 years only the floods in Carpathian region will exceed those observed in the past years. In the Polish Lowlands maximum precipitation totals of p= 1% will be from 20 to even 50% lower than in the last decades, thus river runoff will decrease.
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