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Application of neural networks and support vector machine for significant wave height prediction

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Berbic J., Ocvirk E., Carevic D., Loncar G.
Oceanologia
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2017
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tom 59
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nr 3
For the purposes of planning and operation of maritime activities, information about wave height dynamics is of great importance. In the paper, real-time prediction of significant wave heights for the following 0.5–5.5 h is provided, using information from 3 or more time points. In the first stage, predictions are made by varying the quantity of significant wave heights from previous time points and various ways of using data are discussed. Afterwards, in the best model, according to the criteria of practicality and accuracy, the influence of wind is taken into account. Predictions are made using two machine learning methods – artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). The models were built using the built-in functions of software Weka, developed by Waikato University, New Zealand.
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Influence of density stratification on effluent plume dynamics

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Loncar G., Paklar G. B., Janekovic I.
Oceanologia
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2011
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tom 53
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nr 2
In this study we modelled sea temperature (T ), salinity (S) and density field dynamics using a 3D numerical model applied to Rijeka Bay (Croatia) in order to explore their effect on effluent plume dynamics in the vicinity of four submarine sewage outfalls when the bora wind (NE direction) is blowing. The vertical density stratification in the area studied is strongly related to the bora wind, which contributes significantly to the lowering of the pycnocline depth through enhanced mixing in the vertical, giving rise to changes in the neutral buoyancy level. The features of near-field plume dynamics were calculated with the use of a separate near-field numerical model, using information on the vertical density distribution previously calculated using a 3D numerical model. The results of the numerical simulations and statistical analysis of the wind data indicate a very low probability of complete water column homogenization and consequent effluent plume rise to the sea surface under the influence of the bora wind during the peak tourist season (May–September).
3
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Transformation of statistical and spectral wave periods crossing a smooth low-crested structure

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Carevic D., Loncar G., Prsic M.
Oceanologia
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2012
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tom 54
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nr 1
We carried out experimental studies of a smooth submerged breakwater in a wave channel in order to study such a structure impacts on the changes of statistically and spectrally defined representative wave periods as waves cross it. We discuss the impact of relative submersion, i.e. the relationship between the breakwater crown submersion and the incoming significant wave length Rc/Ls−i, on the representative wave periods. The mean periods, estimated using statistical and spectral methods, were compared in front of and behind the breakwater: the two periods turned out to be identical. Based on the measurements of the spectral mean wave periods in front of and behind the breakwater, an empirical model is derived for estimating the reduction in mean spectral period for submerged and emerged smooth breakwaters.
4
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Numerical modelling of an oil spill in the Northern Adriatic

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Loncar G., Leder N., Paladin M.
Oceanologia
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2012
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tom 54
|
nr 2
Hypothetical cases of oil spills, caused by ship failure in the northern Adriatic, are analysed with the aim of producing three-dimensional models of sea circulation and oil contaminant transport. Sea surface elevations, sea temperature and salinity fields are applied as a forcing argument on the model’s open boundaries. The Aladin-HR model with a spatial resolution of 8 km and a time interval of 3 hours is used for atmospheric forcing. River discharges along the coastline in question are introduced as point source terms and are assumed to have zero salinity at their respective locations. The results of the numerical modelling of physical oceanography parameters are validated by measurements carried out in the ‘Adriatic Sea monitoring programme’ in a series of current meter and CTD stations in the period from 1 January 2008 to 15 November 2008. The oil spill model uses the current field obtained from a circulation model. Besides the convective dispersive transport of oil pollution (Lagrangian model of discrete particles), the model takes into account a number of reactive processes such as emulsification, dissolution, evaporation and heat balance between the oil, sea and atmosphere. An actual event took place on 6 February 2008, when the ship ‘Und Adriyatik’ caught fire in the vicinity of the town of Rovinj (Croatia) en route from Istanbul (Turkey) to Trieste (Italy). At the time the fire broke out, the ship was carrying around 800 tons of oil. Thanks to the rapid intervention of the fire department, the fire was extinguished during the following 12 hours, preventing possible catastrophic environmental consequences. Based on this occurrence, five hypothetical scenarios of ship failure with a consequent spill of 800 tons of oil over 12 hours were analysed. The main distinction between the simulated scenarios is the time of the start of the oil spill, corresponding to the times when stronger winds were blowing (>7 m s−1) with a minimum duration of 24 h within the timeframe. Each scenario includes a simulation of oil transport for a period of two months after the beginning of the oil spill. The results show that the coastal belt between the towns of Poreˇc and Rovinj is seriously exposed to an oil pollution load, especially a few days after a strong and persistent bora (NE wind).
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