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In July 2016 in the Three-city agglomeration a rainfall episode of over a day duration and 150 mm summary rainfall height, occurred. This situation, extreme as for Polish conditions, caused significant freshets in rivers and streams running into Gdansk Bay, the Baltic Sea, and serving as collectors of rainfall waters for the sea-coast towns. In many areas of the Three-city flood phenomena and overflows took place. The flood also occurred in the catchment area of the Kacza river in Gdynia. The passing of flood water rise caused damage of many infrastructure objects located along the river valley. The estuary section of the river suffered most, especially sea-shore belt together with beach around the estuary which were significantly washed out. In this paper an approach was made to answer to the question on direct causes of the situation which occurred at the estuary of the Kacza river. To this end, there was worked out a hydrodynamic model of the considered section of the river, based on the solving of two-dimensional differential motion equations of free-surface liquid, and simulations of water flow propagation along the river’s valley were performed for a few variants of hydraulic engineering infrastructure of river bed. Numerical hydraulic analysis made it possible to determine a role of the hydraulic engineering objects in forming the flood water rise as well as their impact on location and range of washout zones of sea-shore belt
Aim of the study The paper presents the results of hydraulic calculations (numerical simulations), which were conducted in order to investigate the role of floodplain (polder) adjacent to the left bank of Cisowska Struga in Gdynia downstream of Hutnicza street in the process of retention and transformation of flood waves occurring in this river due to heavy rainfall. The paper also addresses the issue of the impact of potential changes in the development of the retention area under consideration for the flood risk in Rumia. Material and methods In order to perform hydraulic calculations, mathematical modelling was used. All hydraulic calculations of flood wave transformation in channels and floodplains were performed using the HEC-RAS software and the data on characteristic flows obtained from the available hydrological calculations. Results and conclusions In the light of the obtained results, it should be stated that the analysed retention area between Hutnicza street in Gdynia and the railway line is of high hydrological significance. Potential reduction of the retention capacity of this area will negatively affect the transformation process of flood waves in the Cisowska Struga on the analysed section. At the outlet section in the area of Dębogórska street and further in Rumia, the water level will be elevated, and flood waves will reach there faster. Due to the potential increase of the flood risk in Rumia, this is undesirable.
One of the manifestations of climate changes is the occurrence of a greater number of precipitation events, characterized by greater rain intensity that affects the economic stability of cities. Gdańsk is an example of a city in which such events have occurred since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Due to the altitude differences in the area of Gdańsk city (between –2 m and 180 m a.s.l.), the occurrence of extreme atmospheric precipitation almost immediately causes hydrological effects in the water network consisting of several streams of montane character, which flow eastwards from the plateau of the Kashubian Lakeland. Meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Service (IMGW-PIB) are located in the coastal zone (Port Północny/Northern Port, Świbno) and in the highest part of the city (the Rębiechowo airport). Because this is insufficient, the city of Gdańsk has been expanding the local rain monitoring network since 2001, currently having reliable 10-year observation data sequences. The said network is operated by the Gdańsk Water municipal company. Climate changes resulting in different characteristics of rainfall episodes in Gdańsk naturally influence the determination of the probability of their occurrence. According to the rainfall model developed by Bogdanowicz and Stachy at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, at least 4 rainfall events lasting for over 8 hours in the last 17 years should be classified as a 100-year rain event. One of these extended the parameters of a 300-year rain event; whereas we asses the rain in the year 2016, when even 170 mm of rainfall was recorded on July 14, as at least a 500-year rain event. During this period, several-minute events were also recorded, which also exceeded the parameters of a 100-year rain event. The paper presents precipitation models for the region of Gdańsk. Based on the maximum annual daily rainfall from Rębiechowo meteorological station from the years 1974–2017, an analysis of changes in precipitation values corresponding to certain probabilities of occurrence was conducted. An assessment was also made of the projected decrease in the value of precipitation in relation to hydro-technical constructions, road-engineering structures, and rainwater drainage systems in view of changing legal regulations, as well as the latest trends related to the management of rainwater.
A method for the detection of segregating major genes based on the analysis of estimated marginal posterior major gene variance density was examined. The properties of the method were investigated using data sets simulated for a real population of laying hens consisting of eleven generations. Marginal posterior densities of model parameters were estimated by the Gibbs sampling approach proposed by Janss et al. (1995). With the data of about 4000 observations it was possible to detect a major gene responsible for one third of the genetic variance and one tenth of the phenotypic variance, irrespectively of the degree of dominance at the major locus. The inference based on the posterior marginal major gene variance can be sensitive to skewness of the data. It was shown that skewness of 0.2 can lead to a false detection of a major gene. The method is robust against a non-genetic mixture of normal distributions.
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