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In order to survive periods of adverse cold climatic conditions, plant requirements are satisfi ed by means of physiological adaptations to prevent cells from freezing. Thus, the growth of woody plants in temperate regions slows down and they enter into a physiological state called dormancy. In order to identify the chilling and heat requirements to overcome the dormancy period of Cupressaceae pollen type in the south of Europe, we have carried out our study with aerobiological data from a 10-year (1996- 2005) period in Ponferrada, León (Spain). For the chilling requirements the best result was with a threshold temperature of 7.1ºC and an average of 927 CH. Calculation of heat requirements was carried out with maximum temperature, with 490 growth degree days (GDD) needed, with a threshold temperature of 0ºC. We have used the 2002-2003, 2003- 2004 and 2004-2005 periods in order to determine the real validity of the model. We have not used these years in developing the models. The dates predicted differ in only a few days from those observed: in 2002-2003 there was a difference of 11 days, in 2003-2004 predicted and observed dates were the same, but in 2004-2005 the difference obtained was of 43 days.
To take preventative measures to protect allergic people from the severity of the pollen season, one of aerobiology’s objectives is to develop statistical models enabling the short- and long-term prediction of atmospheric pollen concentrations. During recent years some attempts have been made to apply Time Series analysis, frequently used in biomedical studies and atmospheric contamination to pollen series. The aim of this study is to understand the behaviour of atmospheric alder pollen concentrations in northwest Spain in order to develop predictive models of pollen concentrations by using Time Series analysis. The prediction line proposed for Oviedo and Ponferrada are similar (Arima 2,0,1) while in Vigo a more accurate model founded by Arima (3,0,1) and in León (1,0,1) was used. The results suggest that Ponferrada and Oviedo are the cities in northwest Spain where Alnus pollen allergic individuals should to take preventive measures to protect themselves from the severity of the pollen season. Alnus pollen values higher than 30 grains/m3, a quantity considered sufficient to trigger severe allergy symptoms of other trees of the Betulaceae family, could be reached during 25 days in some years. The predicted lines conformed with the observed values overall in the case of León and Ponferrada. Time Series regression models are especially suitable in allergology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying pollen appearance in the atmosphere.
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