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Northeastern China is one of the largest industrial and agricultural bases in China, but frequent flooding brings huge losses to the people and country. To forecast floods in northeastern China, we used commensurability forecasting techniques and ordered a network structure chart and butterfly structure diagram. The prediction selected extraordinary flooding years that have occurred in the region since 1856, and it used ternary, quinary, and septenary commensurability calculation models for forecasting. It verified the inevitability of flooding in 2013 and showed that northeastern China would be highly prone to flooding in 2017. The specific locations of flooding would be the second Songhua River or Liaohe River. The ordered network structure and butterfly structure diagram are the extension of commensurability, both of which showed perfect symmetry neatly and orderly, and indicated the great possibility of flooding in northeastern China in 2017. Because of spatial distribution in the region, we also picked up four representative sites in the region to subsidiarily forecast the runoff qualitatively. Except for a site that did not have a significant year, the other three sites showed that the runoff in the second Songhua River would be wet in 2017. The idea of this paper is good in the data-starved area and helpful for improving judgment regarding flood trends.
Low-impact development (LID) is generally regarded as an effective solution for urban stormwater management. However, the effects of LID on storm flooding on an urban drainage systems scale have not been fully understood under different rainfall characteristics. In this paper, using a high-density residential catchment in China as a case study, the PCSWMM model is applied to simulate the control effects of seven LID land layout scenarios on water quantity and quality of rainfall runoff under different rainfall return periods, durations, and locations of peak rainfall intensity. The simulations indicated the following results: (1) All seven LID scenarios are more effective in flood control during smaller rainfall return periods and longer rainfall duration storms, and the influence of locations of peak rainfall intensity on the rainfall runoff is not obvious. (2) Permeable pavement is the best choice in single LID measures, and the combination of permeable pavement, vegetative swale, and a green roof is the best choice among combined LID layouts. This paper gives insight into the performance of LID designs under different rainfall characteristics, which is essential for effective sponge city construction.
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