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The recent hurricanes that wreaked havoc on the coasts of the Mexican Gulf inspire fear. The question arises: is it going to get even worse? Are increasingly fiercer weather conditions going to remain a normal feature? This is the first of the AURA articles on the reality and possible climatic changes, weather forecasting tools and techniques. The article has been written by researchers and professionals from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management and Silesian University. The text answers the title question.
The principal goal of the study was to determine circulation types with respect to the occurrence of extreme values of air temperature in Poland. A comparison between different available classifications was also performed. Maximum and minimum daily temperatures for the 56-year study period (1951-2006) obtained from 54 weather stations were used. Detailed calculations were performed for the summer (June-August) and winter (December-February) seasons. Extreme values were selected with respect to probability distribution bases. The study showed that circulation types with an anticyclonic ridge were the most important for extremely hot days in the summer, while extremely low temperatures in the winter were usually associated with anticyclonic types with an easterly airflow. A special effort was made to identify the classification scheme yielding the best accuracy in evaluating extremes.
Meteorological hazard maps are one of the components of the IT System for Country Protection against extreme hazards (ISOK) created by a consortium of Polish institutions, including the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. These maps present meteorological phenomena such as: temperature extremes, heavy and flood-producing rainfall, strong winds, intensive snowfall, fogs, glaze, rime and thunderstorms with hail. These elements were chosen arbitrarily due to recorded or estimated losses. The main aim of the maps is to present visualization methods of hazard forecast with consideration of climatological (historical) background. To identify areas especially exposed to the above meteorological hazards, extensive climatological analyses were performed, based on long-term daily data (mainly the 1951-2010 period). The main component of the warning system is a set of prediction maps created automatically on the basis of scientific algorithms that provide the probability of the occurrence of particular phenomena, or the conditions favourable for them. The algorithms’ structure, based on information about physical processes in the atmosphere, as well as detailed climatological analysis, enables the reclassification of the forecast values – predicted by the ALADIN mesoscale atmospheric model – into four groups of any hazard at the gridded points. Finally, the information will be interpolated and will result in the production of maps of spatial distribution presenting the objective probability of a particular hazard, i.e. its actual risk. Results of historical analysis are to be presented for the public by a number of climatological maps, and accompanied by additional fact sheets to provide society with an actual view of the spatial distribution of the distinguished weather phenomena, and the interrelated risks.
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