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Konsekwencje zmian klimatycznych dla rolnictwa

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Paper presents the review of scenarios concerning the influence of climate changes for agriculture, focusing on the Polish situation. Numerous projections of changes in environmental conditions based on GCM models are diverse however their common field are the conclusions related to the adaptive capabilities of Polish agriculture to the expected changes. Suggested as necessary undertakings concern: the improvements in the water system, introducing to the production thermophilic and more resistant on water deficit crops, researches on pests and diseases that will intensify or will appear, the improvement and extension of the insurance system in the agriculture.
On the basis of literature, the paper describes changes observed in Polish agriculture in 2004 and the following years, against the background of the situation in previous years. On the grounds of the above, eight theses have been formulated: on doubling agricultural income, on years needed for reestablishing economical balance disturbed by change of conditions, on increase of property size and modernization on farms of 16 and more ESU, on low profitability of equity capital in farms basing on high labour input and high capital resources, on growing range of agricultural producers who combine farm income with other incomes, on permanent deficit of part of farms of at least 100 hectares of cropland – in effect of legal regulations, incorrect definition of the areas with disadvantageous farming conditions and highly competitive potential of farms in Poland in comparison to the selected EU countries. The above theses require to be confirmed or rejected on the basis of analyses carried out in a long term (i.e. in the years 2005-2007), after Poland’s accession to European Union.
The paper presents the situation of the Polish specialist pig holdings at the backdrop of similar holdings in Hungary, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands. In order to study their development abilities, the following indices underwent a comprehensive assessment: productivity, profitability, management income, net investment rates and share of subsidies in the income of an agricultural holding. The highest productivity indices were achieved by the Dutch holdings, and profitability – the Hungarian and Polish holdings. Very large Polish agricultural holdings also produced the highest aggregated values of the cumulative rela- tive goodness index. Moreover, the paper points to the fundamental reasons behind the weakness of the Polish pig production sector, which cover low level of concentration and no linkages between the live pig producers and processing plants. It also determines how to take up and where to channel remedial actions.
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On the basis of literature, the paper describes changes observed in Polish agriculture in year 2004 and several following years, on the background of previous years' situation. On the grounds of the above, eight thesis have been formulated: on doubling agriculturalincome, on years needed for re-establishing economical balance disturbed by change of conditions, on increase of property size and modernization on farms of 16 and more ESU, on low profitability of equity capital in farms basing on high labour input and high capital resources, on growing range of agricultural producers who couple farm income with other incomes, on permanent deficit of part of farms of at least 100 hectares of croplands – in effect of legal regulations, incorrect definition for areas of disadvantageous farming conditions and high competitive potential of Polish farms in comparison to chosen UE countries. The above thesis require to be confirmed or rejected on the basis of analysis carried out in a longer time period (e.g. years 2005-2007) after Poland’s accession to European Union.
A group of farms (distinguished according to types of production and the economic magnitude) in countries close to Poland i.e. Austria, Denmark, Germany and Sweden, in the years 1997, 1999 and 2001 have been covered by the analysis. It resulted from the study that only some of these farms are able to continue their activities without budget subventions. In this situation the announced liberalization of the CAP would threaten with numerous bankruptcies of farms in some of the former EU-15 countries. This in turn could result in reduction of self-sufficiency in food production. Only farms specialized in vegetables, fruit, pigs, poultry and eggs production would show a relatively good standing. However, they constitute ca 10% of all farms in the analyzed countries. The chance for survival would also have some 16% of other farms (mainly in Austria). In general, in group of four analised countries only26% of existing farms could continue their activity under the conditions of liberalized CAP.
After the accession as compared to the pre-accession period Polish agriculture witnessed a growth in the volume of products produced with the resources spent under intermediate consumption. Diffusion of innovations and progress related thereto were among the significant reasons of the productivity growth. The phenomenon of growth in the volume of products produced with the resources spent under intermediate consumption overlapped with the effects of the accession, which brought, inter alia, a considerable increase in subsidies.This was the most important factor of improving the competitiveness of the Polish agri- culture. If before 2004 only about 25 thousand farms showed any features pointing to competitive capabilities, in 2007 there were already 290-300 thousand farms of natural and legal persons, which demonstrated competitive capabilities or any prospects to achieve them. It is estimated that they produced 50-60% of the national value of agricultural production. The impact of innovations on the progress taking place in Polish agriculture could have been greater if there were less farms failing to implement innovations. These were mainly smaller farms, but this group also included about 1/3 of farms with an area of 8 or more ESU.
Większe tempo wzrostu kosztów pracy w działach pozarolniczych i cen środków produkcji dla rolnictwa od cen zbytu produktów rolnych w krajach z gospodarką rynkową powoduje spadek jednostkowej opłacalności produkcji rolniczej. Rolnicy chcący uzyskiwać satysfakcjonujący dochód muszą zwiększać skalę produkcji, głównie przez wzrost powierzchni gospodarstw. Badaniami celowo objęto wybrane dwie grupy krajów różniących się poziomem rozwoju gospodarczego określonym wartością produktu krajowego brutto (PKB) w przeliczeniu na jednego mieszkańca. Uzasadnieniem takiego wyboru była występująca zależność siły ekonomicznej gospodarstw rolnych od poziomu gospodarki narodowej badanych krajów. Do pierwszej grupy krajów o dużym poziomie tego wskaźnika (PKB) zaliczono: Danię, Szwecję, Irlandię, Holandię, Austrię, Niemcy, Belgię, Wielką Brytanię i Francję, natomiast do drugiej Słowenię, Czechy, Słowację, Litwę, Łotwę, Polskę, Węgry, Rumunię i Bułgarię. Analizą objęto zmiany średniej powierzchni gospodarstw, udział gospodarstw o powierzchni: 30 ha użytków rolnych i większych w liczbie gospodarstw ogółem w użytkowaniu ziemi, zatrudnieniu i standardowej produkcji w badanych latach 2005 i 2016. W krajach grup 1 i 2 w analizowanych okresie zwiększyły się: średnia powierzchnia gospodarstw i udział gospodarstw obszarowo większych w użytkowaniu ziemi i w produkcji. W większości uwzględnionych krajów udział gospodarstw o powierzchni 100 ha i większych w produkcji przekraczał 50%.
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