The efficiency of some forecasting methods applied to annual minimum flow series

• Autorzy: Weglarczyk S.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Four methods of forecasting: „no-change", LOESS, local linear regression and Holt-Winters were applied to annual minimum water levels observed at ten cross-sections of two tributaries of the Vistula river. The 1-, 2-, ..., 5-year forecasts were made for each year after some initial year, and four quality measures: bias, root mean square error, mean absolute error and maximum absolute error were calculated for each time series and lead time. The naïve model turned out to be always the worst in it bias and almost always very good, sometimes the best regarding the other measures.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

forecasting method; Holt-Winters model; water level; annual minimum water level; Vistula River; tributary; local linear regression model; river; LOESS model

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich
• Rocznik: 2011
• Numer: 12
• Opis fizyczny: p.59-68,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Weglarczyk S.

• Institute of Water Engineering and Water Management, Krakow University of Technology, Warszawska 24, 31-155 Krakow, Poland

Bibliografia

• Cleveland, W. S., Loader, C. (1995) Smoothing by local regression: Principles and methods. Technical Report, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, NY.
• Helsel D. R., Hirsch R. M., Statistical Methods in Water Resources, Elsevier 1997
• Li, X. and Heckman, N. E. (1996) Local linear forecasting. Technical Report 167. Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver.
• NIST 2011, http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmd/section1/pmd144.htm, (accessed 19.11.2011).