Postęp badań przyczyn zmian klimatu Ziemi w drugiej połowie XX wieku

• Autorzy: Boryczka J.

Warianty tytułu

EN

The advance in the study of causes of climate change in the second half of the 20th century

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

The report distinguishes the following areas of study ( sections ): 1. The beginnings of the study of the periodical climate changes, 2. The J. Boryczka mdhod of "regression sinusoids" of identifications of periods 3. identification of the causes of climate changes, 4. Warm winters in Europe, raising level of the Baltic Sea, 5. The influence of the Atlantic Ocean on the climate of Europe (and Poland) in the years 1825-1997 -the progressing warming in winter, the weakening cooling in summer, 6. Forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and winters in Warsaw in the 21 st century according to the cycles identified, 7. The dominating role of the volcanic dust in the shaping of the Earth's climate in the 17th-21 st century, 8. Forecasts of the climate of Europe in the 21st century according to the changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the concentration of the volcanic dust (DV[), and solar activity (W). The study of the periodical changes of climate was initiated by E. Brückner in his publication from 1890, devoted to the 35-year cycle of climate fluctuations, with two phases: the warm-and-dry one and the cool-and-humid one, the calculated period being equal 34.8 ± 0.7 years. An important role in the evaluation of the degree of reality of the identified climatic cycles was played by the criterion of A. Schuster (1906): a > 3E. A significant assessment of the reality of the propositions forwarded by Brückner is constituted by the publication of R. Gumiński (1946) "The 35-year "periods" of climatic fluctuations of Brückner' s in the light of the contemporary climatology" (in Polish), which negates the existence of the 35-year cycle. According to the results of empirical studies the longer and shorter climate cycles have existed in the second half of the 20th century, and in some chronological series the 30-40-year cycle is also present. Side by side with the harmonic analysis, the autocorrelation method and the Fourier transform method, a new method was introduced into the study of periodicity - the method of "regression sinusoids" of J. Boryczka, serving to identify the periods. The method of "regression sinusoids" consists in fitting - in the sense of least squares - the consecutive sinusoids of the periods making a series like 0.1, 0.2, ... , n, to the measurements. The periods identified correspond to the local minima of the rest variance. The method of "regression sinusoids" may also be applied in the case of the unevenly appearing volcanic eruptions, in sedimentology (the time intervals between measurements do not have to be the same - as in the previous methods). The fundamental significance should be attached in the identification of the natural changes of the Earth's climate to the principle: "The periodicity of the of the causes and effects should be similar." That is why it is essential to demonstrate the analogous periodicity of the cycles of the hypothetical causes - the astronomical and geological variables, and the effects - the climatological and the hydrological variables. Of key significance in the identification of the causes of climate fluctuations is the planetary 178.9-year cycle of the changes in the parameters of the solar system, solar activity, and the solar constant. This cycle is also present in some of the longest series of air temperature measurements (e.g. Middle England - summer). This periodicity is identified in the case of the sedimentological variables. Similarity of the spectra of oscillations of the astronomical and climatological variables was demonstrated. Progressing warming of winters and weakening cooling of summers is being observed in Europe and in Poland. It is conditioned by the progressing changes in the thermal influence of the Atlantic ocean waters (warming in winter and cooling in summer). The trends in the NAO indicator are increasing in winter and decreasing in summer. In other words, the zonal circulation in Europe intensifies in winter and weakens in summer. The dominating role of volcanic dust in the shaping of the climate of Poland in the 17th-20th centuries is demonstrated. The curves of changes of: air temperature in Warsaw (T) and the variable corresponding to the purification of the atmosphere of the volcanic dust (-logDVI) in the years 1500-2100 are very close to congruence (DVI - dust veil index, H. Lamb, 1974). A novelty is constituted by the forecasts of air temperature in Warsaw for the years 2001-2100 according to the changes in the NAO index, concentration of the volcanic dust (DVI), and solar activity (Wolf numbers – W). Another novelty consists in the analogous forecasts of the Baltic Sea levels in the 21st century (in Świnoujście). The similarity of these two types of forecasts, namely according to the interference of the identified temperature cycles, T = T(t) and the Baltic Sea level, h = h(t), and according to the changes NAO, DVI, W: T = T(NAO, DVI, W), h= h(NAO, DVI, W) is highly interesting.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Prace i Studia Geograficzne
• Rocznik: 2001
• Tom: 28
• Opis fizyczny: s.137-156,tab.,wykr.,bibliogr.

Twórcy

autor

Boryczka J.

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