Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014

• Autorzy: Czernecki B. , Jablonska K.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Rekonstrukcja późnowiosennych faz fenologicznych w Polsce i ich odpowiedź na zmiany klimatu, 1951-2014

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Phenology is primarily seen as an indicator of the impacts of climate change. The strongest biological signal of climatic change is revealed by phenological data from the period after 1990. Unfortunately, the Polish nationwide network of phenological monitoring was terminated in 1992, and was only reactivated in 2005. Here, we attempt to reconstruct late spring phenophases of flowering of Syringa vulgaris L. and Aesculus hippocastanum L. across several sites in Poland from 1951 to 2014 using the GIS-based approach (if observations from neighboring stations were available) and multiple regression modeling with stepwise screening and bootstrap resampling. It was found that the air temperature and its indices explain over 60% of the variance, giving an accuracy of 3.0-3.4 days (mean absolute error) and correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.78 for lilac and horse chestnut, respectively. Altogether, both plant species showed a statistically significant advancement in the onset of flowering with an average rate of 1.7 days per decade. We also found that the final trend is the result of rapid acceleration of the increase in air temperature after the 1990s, while most of the trends for late spring were ambiguous before that period.

PL

Fenologia jest postrzegana obecnie przede wszystkim jako wskaźnik zmian klimatu. Największy biologiczny sygnał tych zmian w Europie ujawnił się po 1990 r. Niestety, kompletne fe-nologiczne serie danych w Polsce kończą się na 1992 r., natomiast kompleksowy monitoring fenologiczny o zasięgu ogólnokrajowym reaktywowano dopiero w 2005 r. Mając na uwadze powstałą lukę w seriach danych w niniejszym artykule podjęto próbę rekonstrukcji późnowiosennych faz fenologicznych kwitnienia lilaka pospolitego (Syringa vulgaris L.) i kasztanowca zwyczajnego (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) w latach 1951-2014 na przykładzie wybranych stacji. Dostępne dane fenologiczne z innych lokalizacji posłużyły do uzupełnienia serii danych obserwacyjnych w oparciu o techniki interpolacji GIS. Dla pozostałych przypadków rekonstrukcję wykonano w oparciu o utworzony model regresji wielokrotnej z próbkowaniem bo-otstrapowym oraz krokową metodą budowy modelu z kryterium Akaike (AIC). Utworzony model statystyczny bazujący na indeksach temperatury powietrza i wskaźnikach pochodnych pozwala wyjaśnić ponad 60% wariancji terminu rozpoczęcia fenofazy późnowiosennej, przy dokładności modelu wynoszącej 3.0-3.4 dnia (średni błąd bezwzględny, MAE) i korelacji 0.83 i 0.78 odpowiednio dla lilaka pospolitego i kasztanowca zwyczajnego. Przeprowadzona analiza trendu jednoznacznie wskazuje na przyspieszenie terminu kwitnienia obu gatunków średnio o 1.7 dnia/dekadę. Uzyskana wartość trendu jest w głównej mierze spowodowana gwałtownym wzrostem temperatury obserwowanym od lat 90. ubiegłego wieku. W dekadach wcześniejszych fenofazy późnowiosenne nie wykazywały jednoznacznych tendencji zmian.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Acta Agrobotanica
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: 69
• Numer: 2
• Opis fizyczny: Article 1671 [15p.], fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Czernecki B.

• Department of Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan, Dziegielowa 27, 61-680 Poznan, Poland

autor

Jablonska K.

• Department of Air Pollution Modelling, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, Podlesna 61, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5586/aa.1671