Impact of extreme climate changes on the predicted crops in Poland

• Autorzy: Bojar W. , Knopik L. , Zarski J. , Slawinski C. , Baranowski P. , Zarski W.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Wpływ ekstermalnych zmian klimatu na prognozowaną produkcję rolniczą

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce.

PL

W pracy przedstawiono ogólną charakterystykę zasobów rolnych w województwach kujawsko-pomorskim i lubelskim, oszacowanych na podstawie baz danych statystycznych i przeglądu literatury. Niektóre specyficzne cechy regionów, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem przewidywanych ekstremalnych zmian klimatu, zostały również uwzględnione. Na tej podstawie oszacowano kilka istotnych statystycznie zależności pomiędzy parametrami klimatycznymi i rentownością wybranych najważniejszych upraw w wyżej wymienionych regionach. Zależności te zostały opracowane na podstawie badań empirycznych przeprowadzonych w Uniwersytecie Technologiczno-Przyrodniczym w Bydgoszczy oraz w Instytucie Agrofizyki PAN w Lublinie. Aby określić żądane zależności konieczne było użycie metody prognozowania długich serii dekad bez opadów. Zostały podjęte prace, aby zintegrowane oceny prognozowania wpływu zmian klimatu na zasoby rolne i rentowność gospodarstw opierały się na zależności plon – opad oraz o dane pochodzące z modeli regionalnych, takich jak ceny obszarów rolnych i plonów.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Acta Agrophysica
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: 21
• Numer: 4
• Opis fizyczny: p.415-431,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Bojar W.

• Faculty of Management, University of Technology and Life Sciences, Forodonska 430, 85-790 Bydgoszcz, Poland

autor

Knopik L.

• Faculty of Management, University of Technology and Life Sciences, Forodonska 430, 85-790 Bydgoszcz, Poland

autor

Zarski J.

• Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bernardynska 6, 85-029 Bydgoszcz, Poland

autor

Slawinski C.

• Institute of Agrophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Doswiadczalna 4 , 20-290 Lublin, Poland

autor

Baranowski P.

• Institute of Agrophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Doswiadczalna 4 , 20-290 Lublin, Poland

autor

Zarski W.

• Faculty of Management, University of Technology and Life Sciences, Forodonska 430, 85-790 Bydgoszcz, Poland

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