Thermal regions in light of contemporary climate change in Poland

• Autorzy: Ziernicka-Wojtaszek A. , Zawora T.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Agroclimatic elaborations, including practical agricultural recommendations, are based on recent climate standards (30-year periods): 1881-1930, 1931-60, 1951-80, and 1961-90. The period 1971-2000 has just recently been included in climate studies. During the final two decades of the 20th century and in the beginning of the 21st century we have observed a clear and well documented increase in air temperature. In this article the authors compare the extent of thermal regions in Poland, which have been designated on the basis of effective temperature sums ≥10℃ for the period 1971-2000. It should be noted that at present this is the effective climatological standard and it was used to obtain regression equation data for 2000 and 2007. The results of this study indicate that the area of the temperate-cool region with effective temperature sums ≥10℃ in the range of 2,000-2,400℃ has been decreasing in subsequent time periods – 37%, 12%, and 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, the warm region characterized by effective temperature sums in the range 2,800-3,200℃ has increased its area from 3% in 2000 to 26% in 2007. It should be emphasized that the warm region has not been observed when we analyzed the 1971-2000 data. The originality of this article is outlined by the fact that it documents and characterizes contemporary climate changes, which are manifested through changes in the extent of thermal regions. In addition, this article attempts to depict a number of consequences of these changes by illustrating the possibility of expansion of the surface area of thermophilic plants.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Environmental Studies
• Rocznik: 2011
• Tom: 20
• Numer: 6
• Opis fizyczny: 1627-1632,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Ziernicka-Wojtaszek A.

• Department of Ecology, Climatology and Air Protection, Agricultural University, Al. Mickiewicza 24/28, 30-059 Kraków, Poland

autor

Zawora T.

• Department of Ecology, Climatology and Air Protection, Agricultural University, Al. Mickiewicza 24/28, 30-059 Kraków, Poland

Bibliografia

• 1. WISZNIEWSKI W., GUMIŃSKI R., BARTNICKI L. Monographs on the climatology of Poland. Data gathered by the National Hydrological and Hydrogeological Services 1, 5, 27, Warszawa, 1949 [In Polish].
• 2. WISZNIEWSKI W. The Climate Atlas of Poland. The Institute of Meteorology and Management, The PolishCartographic Publishers, Warszawa, 1973 [In Polish].
• 3. KOSSOWSKA-CEZAK U., MARTYN D., OLSZEWSKI K., KOPACZ-LEMBOWICZ M. Meteorology and climatology. Measurements, observations, studies. PWN, Warszawa-Łodź, 259, 2000 [In Polish].
• 4. LORENC H. The Atlas of the Climate of Poland. The Institute of Meteorology and Management, Warszawa, 2005 [In Polish].
• 5. CHOMICZ K. The materials which help us become familiar with the agroclimate of Poland. PWN, Warszawa, 296, 1977 [In Polish].
• 6. KOŹMIŃSKI CZ., MICHALSKA B. The Atlas of the Climatic Risk to Crop Cultivation in Poland. The University of Agriculture in Szczecin, 2001 [In Polish].
• 7. KOŻUCHOWSKI K., ŻMUDZKA E. 100-year series of areally averaged temperatures and precipitation totals in Poland. Geographical Studies 75, Acta Universitatis Wratislaviensis 2542, 116-122, Wrocław, 2003.
• 8. PIOTROWICZ K. Air temperature. In: Matuszko D. (Eds) The Climate of Krakow in the 20th century, IGiGP UJ Krakow, pp. 99-111, 2007 [In Polish].
• 9. HANSEN J.W. Realizing the potential benefis of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges. Agricultural Systems 74, 309, 2002.
• 10. TRENBETH K.E., JONEM P.D., AMBENJE P., BOJARIU R., EASTERLING D., KLEIN TANK A., PARKER D., RAHIMZADEH F., RENWICK J.A., RUSTICUCCI M., SODEN B., ZHAI P. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B., Tignor M., Miller H.L. (Eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
• 11. KOŻUCHOWSKI K., ŻMUDZKA E. Climate warming in Poland: the range and seasonality of the changes in air temperature in the second half of the 20th century. Geographical Review 46, 1-2, 81-90, 2001 [In Polish].
• 12. GORSKI T. The model of the agroclimate of Poland. The Puławy Journal – conference materials 130, 251, 2002 [In Polish].
• 13. ŻMUDZKA E. Climatic background of the agricultural production in Poland in the second half of 20th century. Acta Agrophysica 3, (2), 399, 2004 [In Polish].
• 14. CHRISTENSEN J.H., HEWITSONB., BUSUIOC A., CHEN A., GAO X., HELD I., JONES R., KOLLI R.K., KWON W.-T., LAPRISE R., MAGANA RUEDA, V., MEARNS L., MENENDEZ C.G., RAISANEN J., RINKE A., SARR A., WHETTON P. Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B., Tignor M., Miller H.L. (Eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
• 15. DEPUTAT T. The impact of climate change on the phenology of given cultivated plants. In: The change and variabilityof the climate of Poland. Materials distributed at an all-Poland scientific conference, the University of Łodź, pp. 49-56, 1999 [In Polish].
• 16. DEMIDOWICZ G., DEPUTAT T., GORSKI T., KRASOWICZ S., KUŚ J. The probable changes in plant production that could be caused by the prospective changes of the climate of Poland. In: The change and variability of the climate of Poland. Materials distributed at an all-Poland scientific conference, the University of Łodź, pp. 43-48, 2002 [In Polish].
• 17. GORSKI T. Present-day change in the agroclimate of Poland. The Puławy Journal – conference materials 130, 241, 2002 [In Polish].
• 18. DAUBENMIRE R.F. Plants and environment. Wiley, New York, 424, 1967.
• 19. CHERSZKOWICZ E. Agro and climate related region taxonomy for fundamental crops cultivation in the socialistic European countries. Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, 122, 1971 [In Russian].
• 20. KOZYRA J., GORSKI T. The impact of climate change on agricultural crops in Poland. In: Climate change versus agriculture in rural areas. FDPA Warszawa, pp. 35-40, 2008 [In Polish].
• 21. TAO F., YOKOZAWA M., LIU J., ZHANG Z. Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Research 38, 83, 2008.
• 22. ALCAMO J., DRONIN N., ENDEJAN M., GOLUBEV G., KIRILENKO A. A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Global Environmental Change 17, (3-4), 429, 2007.
• 23. IGLESIAS A., GAROTTE L., QUIROGA S., MONEO M. Impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe. PESETA- Agriculture study, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, 2009.
• 24. HU Q., WEISS A., FENG S., BAENZIGER P.S. Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the U.S. Great Plains. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 135, 284, 2005.
• 25. DONNELLY A., SALAMIN N., JONES M.B. Changes in tree phenology: an indicator of spring warming in Ireland? Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 106, (1), 47, 2006.
• 26. KUNDZEWICZ Z.W., KOWALCZAK P. Climate change and its effects. Ed. Kurpisz S.A. Poznań, 214, 2008 [In Polish].
• 27. HLAVINKA P., TRNKA M., SEMERADOVA D., DUBROVSKY M., ŽALUD Z., MOŽNY M. Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149, 431, 2009.
• 28. LEIPPRAND A., KADNER S., DWORAK T., HATTERMANN F., POST J., KRYSANOVA V., BENZIE M., BERGLUND M. Impacts of climate change on water resources – adaption strategies for Europe. Environmental Research of the Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, 2008.
• 29. KOCMANKOVA E., TRNKA M., EITZINGER J., FORMAYER H., DUBROVSKY M., SEMERADOVA D., ŽALUD Z., JUROCH J., MOŽNY M. Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European Region. Climate Research 44, 95, 2010.
• 30. Statistical Yearbooks: the [Polish] Central Statistical Office. 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005, Warszawa, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2006 [In Polish].
• 31. GAWIN D., KOSSECKA E. A typical meteorological year for the simulation of the heat - mass exchange processes in buildings. Technical University of Łodź, 183, 2002 [In Polish].