Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2016 | 25 | 5 |
Tytuł artykułu

Challenges ahead: Mitigating air transport carbon emissions

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
In this paper we confront widely accepted global climate stabilization goals (70% reduction of CO2 emissions) with the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) forecasts of future commercial aviation growth, in order to explore the real possibilities of realizing these climate stabilization goals. By using ICAO forecasts, we clearly show that, instead of the proclaimed 70% reduction of CO2 emissions, air transport’s CO2 emissions are going to rise five-fold (4.9 times) in the 2005-40 period. But even if a 70% increase of aviation’s energy efficiency and reduction of CO2 emissions could be somehow (miraculously) achieved, CO2 emissions of air transport would be higher by 50% in 2040 (than in 2005), due to the sudden increase in the volume of air-transport tourist trips. So, if the aim is to achieve ambitious energy consumption and GHG reduction for air transport within the next few decades, policies should aim at reducing total consumption, which means reducing VKT – not just vehicle-specific consumption. Due to the extremely high growth rates in the volume of air traffic, it is highly unlikely that technical progress of engines will be sufficient to reduce overall emissions or even keep them at today’s levels. Hence, the policy focus should shift to more rigorous and efficient implementation of market-driven instruments, which, apart from creating incentives to develop and use low-emission technologies, can also reduce the demand for travel.
Słowa kluczowe
Opis fizyczny
  • Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  • Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 1. IPCC. Climate change 2007: Synthesis report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 2007.
  • 2. SCOTT D., PEETERS P., GÖSSLING S. Can tourism deliver its ‘aspirational’ emission reduction targets? Journal of Sustainable Tourism. 18 (3), 393, 2010.
  • 3. JOVANOVIĆ M. Tourism and environmental protection. Megatrend Review. 8 (2), 371, 2011.
  • 4. Airbus. Global Market Forecast 2015–2034. http://www. (accessed: 03. October 2015)
  • 5. GÖSSLING S., CERON J.P., DUBOIS G., HALL M. Hypermobile Travellers. In: Climate Change and Aviation. GÖSSLING S., UPHAM P. (Eds.). Earthscan: London. 2009.
  • 6. UNWTO-UNEP. Climate change and tourism: Responding to global challenges. UNWTO: Madrid. 2008.
  • 7. DUBOIS G., PEETERS P., CERON J. P., GÖSSLING S. The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy. Transportation Research Part A. 45, 1031, 2011.
  • 8. GOSSLING S., UPHMAN P. (Eds.). Climate Change and Aviation. Earthscan: London, 2009.
  • 9. PEETERS P.M., WILLIAMS V. Calculating Emissions and Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change and Aviation. GOSSLING S., UPHMAN P. (Eds.). Earthscan: London, 2009.
  • 10. CAO. ICAO environmental report 2013 - Aviation and climate change. ICAO, 2013.
  • 11. National Academy of Sciences. Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change. NAP: Washington DC, 2010.
  • 12. SCHAFER A., VICTOR D. G. Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions. Energy. 24, 657, 1999.
  • 13. PEETERS P. M., MIDDEL J., HOOLHORST A. Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft - An overview of historical and future trends. National Aerospace Laboratory NLR: Amsterdam, 2005.
  • 14. LEE D. S., FAHEY D. W., FORSTER P. M., NEWTON P. J., WIT R. C. N., LIM L. L., OWEN B., SAUSEN R. Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century. Atmospheric Environment. 43, 3520, 2009.
  • 15. UPHAM P., TOMEI J., BOUCHER P. Biofuels, aviation and sustainability. In: Climate change and aviation: Issues, challenges and solutions. GOSSLING S., UPHAM P. (Eds.). Earthscan: London, 2009.
  • 16. HILEMAN J. I., ORTIZ D. S., BARTIS J. T., MIN WONG H., DONOHOO P. E., WEISS, M. A., WAITZ I. A. Near-term feasibility of alternative jet fuels. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 2009
  • 17. MASCARELLI A. L. Gold rush for algae. Nature. 461, 460, 2009.
  • 18. NYGREN E., ALEKLETT K., HÖÖK M. Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios. Energy Policy. 37 (10), 4003, 2009.
  • 19. UNEP. Towards sustainable production and use of resources: Assessing biofuels. Paris. 2009.
  • 20. ÅKERMAN J. Sustainable air transport – on track in 2050. Transportation Research Part D, 10 (2), 111, 2005.
  • 21. European Low Fares Airline Association. (accessed: February 2016)
  • 22. UNWTO. Compendium of Tourism Statistics. UNWTO: Madrid, 2014.
  • 23. World Bank. (accessed: December 2015)
  • 24. Eurostat. (accessed: December 2015)
  • 25. SEETARAM N., FORSYTH P., DWYER L. Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices. Annals of Tourism Research. 56, 65, 2016.
  • 26. JOVANOVIĆ M. Kuznets curve and urban transport-the scope of I+M programs. Glasnik srpskog geografskog društva (Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society). 92 (4), 127, 2012.
  • 27. DALEY B. Air Transport and the Environment. Ashgate, 2010.
  • 28. RAUX C. The potential for CO2 emissions trading in transport: the case of personal vehicles and freight. Energy efficiency. 3 (2), 133, 2010.
  • 29. JOVANOVIĆ M. Belgrade’s Urban Transport CO2 Emissions from an International Perspective. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 25, 2, 2016.
  • 30. JOUMARD R. The stakes of air pollution in the transport sector, from the French case. Atmospheric Environment. 39, 2491, 2005.
  • 31. FRIMAN M., LARHULT L., GÄRLING T. An analysis of soft transport policy measures implemented in Sweden to reduce private car use. Transportation. 40 (1), 109, 2012.
  • 32. OECD., UNEP. Sustainable Tourism Development and Climate Change: Issues and policies. Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development: Paris. 2011.
  • 33. BANISTER D., HICKMAN R. Transport futures: thinking the unthinkable. Transport Policy. 29, 283, 2013.
  • 34. GÖSSLING S., COHEN S. Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in thelight of taboos. Journal of Transport Geography. 39, 197, 2014.
  • 35. European Commission. EU Transport in Figures. Statistical Pocketbook 2012.
  • 36. IATA. A Global Approach to Reducing Aviation Emissions 2009. http://
  • 37. United Nations. (accessed: January 2016)
  • 38. PRESTON H., LEE S.D., HOOPER D.P. The inclusion of the aviation sector within the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme: What are the prospects for a more sustainable aviation industry? Environmental Development. 2, 48, 2012.
  • 39. JOVANOVIĆ M., VRAČAREVIĆ, B. The challenges of the tradable-permits use in transport sector. Collection of Papers – Faculty of Geography at the University of Belgrade. 61, 59, 2013.
  • 40. ZETTERBERG L. How to integrate international aviation and shipping into a global emissions trading system. In: Beyond Bali, Strategic Issues for the Post-2012 Climate Change Regime. EGENHOFER C. (Ed.). Centre for European Policy Studies: Brussels, 2008.
  • 41. ARES E. EU ETS and Aviation, Standard Note SN.SC/5533. House of Commons Library: London. 2012.
  • 42. PENTELOW L., SCOTT D. Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: implications for the Caribbean tourism industry. Journal of Air Transport Management. 17, 199, 2011.
  • 43. JOTZO F. Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets. CCEP Working Paper. Canberra: Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, 2010.
  • 44. MAYOR K., TOL R. S. J. Aviation and the environment in the context of the EU–US Open Skies agreement. Journal of Air Transport Management. 15, 90, 2009.
  • 45. European Commission. Reducing Emissions from Aviation. (accessed: 15. September 2015)
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.