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2014 | 21 | 1 |
Tytuł artykułu

Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from collision of ships

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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
In this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to determine the probability (P0) of correct execution of critical manoeuvres during ship’s entering and leaving the port as well as the probabilities Pj(j = 1, 2, 3, …, 7) of incorrect execution of critical manoeuvres by a ship, that leads to marine accidents. It was assumed that such accidents result from: ship’s grounding on port approaching fairway, collision with a ship on port approching fairway, collision with a pierhead during passing through port entrance, collision with a hydrotechnical structure during ship’s passing through port channels, collision with a port quay during coming alongside it and collision with a ship already moored to the quay. The probability (P0) was assumed a measure of safe execution of a critical manoeuvre. The probability characterizes possibility of avoiding any collision during ship’s entering and leaving the port. The probability Pa = 1 – P0 was assumed a measure of occurrence of a collsion and - consequently - marine accident. The probability Pa was interpreted as a sum of the probabilities Pj(j = 1, 2, 3, …, 7) of occurrence of all the selected events. In summing up the paper, attention was drawn to its merits which - in opinion of this author - are crucial for research on real process of accidents during entering the port and leaving it by sea-going ship in difficult navigation conditions
Słowa kluczowe
EN
Wydawca
-
Rocznik
Tom
21
Numer
1
Opis fizyczny
p.9-13,fig.,ref.
Twórcy
autor
  • Department of Ship Power Plants, Faculty of Ocean Engineering and Ship Technology, Gdansk University of Technology, Narutowicza 11/12, 80-952 Gdansk, Poland
Bibliografia
  • 1. Abramowicz-Gerigk T.: Safety of critical manoeuvres of ships in sea highway transport system(in Polish). Prace Naukowe (Scientific bulletin). Transport, issue 83. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Warszawskiej (Publishing House of Warsaw University of Technology), Warszawa 2012.
  • 2. Benjamin J. R., Cornell C. A.: Calculus of probability, mathematical statistics and decision-making theory for engineers (in Polish). WNT (Scientific Technical Publishers), Warszawa 1977.
  • 3. Firkowicz S.: Statistical assessment of quality and reliability of electronic lamps (in Polish). WNT (idem), Warszawa 1963.
  • 4. Girtler J., Kuszmider S., Plewiński L.: Selected problems of operation of sea-going ships in the aspect of safety at sea (in Polish). Monograph. WSM (Szczecin Maritime Academy), Szczecin 2003.
  • 5. Girtler J., Kitowski Z., Kuriata A.: Safety of ship at sea. Systematic approach (in Polish). WKiŁ (Transport and Telecommunication Publishers), Warszawa 1995.
  • 6. Girler J.: Controlling the operation process of ship diesel engines on the basis of a diagnostic decision-making model (in Polish). Zeszyty Naukowe AMW(Scientific Bulletins of Polish Naval Academy), No. 100A, Gdynia 1989.
  • 7. Girtler J.: Suggestion of interpretation of action and the rule of taking decision with regard to safety of sea ships traffic. Zagadnienia Eksploatacji Maszyn (Operational Problems of Machines), issue 2(122), vol. 35, 2000.
  • 8. Girtler J.: Diagnostics – a condition for controlling ship diesel engines in service (in Polish). Study No. 28. WSM (Szczecin Maritime Academy), Szczecin 1997.
  • 9. Girtler J.: Availability of sea transport means. Archives of Transport. Polish Academy of Sciences Committee of Transport. Quarterly, vol. 9, iss. 3-4, Warsaw 1997.
  • 10. Girtler J.: Possibility of valuation of marine diesel engines. Journal of Polish CIMAC, No. 1,Vol. 4,, Gdańsk 2009.
  • 11. Grabski F.: Theory of semi-Markov processes of operation of technical objects (in Polish). Zeszyty Naukowe WSMW (AMW) 1. (Scientific Bulletins of Polish Naval Academy), No. 75A, Gdynia 1982.
  • 12. Jaźwiński J., Borgoń J.: Operational reliability and safety of flights (in Polish). WKiŁ (Transport and Telecommunication Publishers), Warszawa 1989.
  • 13. Krzysztofiak M., Urbanek D.: Statistical methods (in Polish). PWN (Polish Scientific Publishers), Warszawa 1979.
  • 14. Plewiński L.: Accidents at sea. Collisions of ships (in Polish). Publ. WSM (Szczecin Maritime Academy), Szczecin 2000.
  • 15. Wiśniewski B.: Wind-generated waves (in Polish). Rozprawy i studia (Dissertations and studies), Vol. (CCCIV) 230, Publ. Uniwersytet Szczeciński (Szczecin University), Szczecin 1998
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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Identyfikator YADDA
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