Hydrological processes in a catchment scale under global climate change

• Autorzy: Kaczmarek Z.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The following areas of research related to the climate\water resources interface may be identified: detecting changes in atmospheric and hydrological variables by means of measurable indicators, including paleohydrological data; assessing sensitivity of land surface processes to climate characteristics; analyzing implications of climate change on regional water supply and demand; assessing the impact of climate change on physical, chemical and biological processes in water bodies. There is a possibility of applying a range of approaches, from simple empirical relationships to complex conceptual models based on simplified representation of the processes involved in the hydrological cycle. There are still uncertainties propagated through the numerous levels of analysis as one moves from CO2 scenarios, through the transference of climatic data to hydrologic characteristics, impacts on water sectors and on management decisions and socioeconomic impacts of response measures. Climate/hydrology impact studies should allow answering questions important for decision making: e.g. is the water system able to fulfil required tasks for the current economic, climatic and hydrologic conditions? If not, what action should be taken to improve the situation? Will the system be able to meet requirements 20 to 50 years from now, assuming stationarity of hydrological processes? If not, what kind of measures must be foreseen to enhance system's ability to cope with water deficits and floods? To what extent a water resource system may be affected as a result of climate change? How to deal with uncertainties? What are the adaptation options? How the analysts should communicate with decision makers in order to demonstrate that there is a problem to be addressed? Based on the current knowledge, the following conclusions seem to be justified: there are reasons for decision makers to be concerned, because the water supply and demand may be affected by the climate change; water systems may be effectively adapted to changed climatic conditions; cost of adaptation in various regions of the country will vary depending on the depth of expected water deficits; the vulnerability of water systems to changes decrease as the level of water system development increase; improved demand management and institutional adaptation are primary components for increasing the robustness of water resources systems; a continuous adaptation of design criteria, development plans, operating rules and water allocation policies to the newly developed climate scenarios is needed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

water management; global change; hydrological process; development; management; ecohydrology; catchment; water resource; climate change

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: International Journal of Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology
• Rocznik: 2002
• Tom: 02
• Numer: 1-4
• Opis fizyczny: p.29-38,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Kaczmarek Z.

• Polish Academy of Sciences, 64, Ks.Janusza, 01-452 Warsaw, Poland